Corona, What’s Next?

[ByeBye]

I am a Bigfoot fan. My original 1988 Bigfoot camper clock. Working like a champ

 

[ByeBye]

It saddening for me to see folks focus so much on consuming mainstream media.

Haven't looked lately but last time I did a very small number of corporations control like 95% of news outlets.

Fear to motivate us to do certain things and the love of drama keeps us hooked on the programming.

Best reality show ever, Pandemic Panic 2020

 

[ByeBye]

The best lie is the one wrapped in truth

 

[crofter]

The best lie is the one wrapped in truth

Pretty hard to lie on a death certificate. Or are you saying that all the coroners have gotten together to make up identical death certificates for a disease that did not exist before? FWIW, deaths from this in the US are under reported, not exaggerated, due to the lack of testing and scant emergency services in hot spots.

Its ok with me if you are on a permanent news fast.  It is way more stressful to face it, and not fun at all to comply with orders to stay home. I miss my caution taped swimming pool.

-crofter

 

[Qxxx]

For quite a while, I have felt that the "most" important statistic is the number deaths per state and country, as every other metric is so variable. Eg, number of cases depends largely on number of tests being performed, as well as their accuracy. And unfortunately, we now come to find out that, many places are "not" recording the number of deaths in retirement homes. Apparently too gruesome for mainstream.

So every day, my 2 main goto sites are ....

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

To me, the most important statistic on the latter site is "deaths per million population", in which case you see for instance:
- NY: 1060
- CA: 37

 

[travelaround]

Politicians: sometimes you just have to hit the mute button. However! I'm glad I bought a TV in February... didn't know how meaningful it would become to me. It is nice to have other people here even if they're only on a screen. So far I've bingewatched all of LOST (second time I've seen it) and Broadchurch. I'm looking for a new bingewatching experience. Feeling no guilt. Of course, I also make time for gardening and art... making videos... all kinds of creative expressions. I'm super happy I have half an acre to wander around on... better and closer to nature than I was in my North Idaho apartment.

 

[crofter]

@Qxxx
They started including deaths with symptoms of the corona virus in the statistic and that bumped up the statistic. So failing to test people is not affecting the death statistics as much as it did previously.

Yes this is a gruesome subject. I have thought of what it would be for me to be dead in a week from this. Very tempting to cheat and go do something fun, but there is too high a price for that. I'll go back to staying home.

-crofter

 

[Qxxx]

Very tempting to cheat and go do something fun, but there is too high a price for that.

In the movie "On the Beach" from the 1950s, a lot of people did all the crazy things they had never had the courage to do in normal times. If I were in Australia like in the movie, I might walk into the outback and see how long I could survive with just a pack on my back, .

But that was "last ditch" effort in the movie. We're not quite to that point yet. Be safe, crofter. There is still time to be crazy ... later on, lol.

 

[travelaround]

I've read that book, On the Beach. I like reading post-apocalyptic fiction. One of my favorite books of all times is Earth Abides by George R. Stewart. It has the distinction of being the only book I've read three times, outside of the Bible. Earth Abides starts with a global pandemic. The main character was sick in a remote cabin. When he returns home to the San Francisco Bay Area, almost everyone is gone. It is hard to find another survivor. Try it sometime (reading the book) you might like it. The last time I read it there were a couple things that stood out to me as being dated. First, when he went across the San Francisco Oakland Bay Bridge the fare was only 25 cents which he paid out of habit, not because there was anyone left to take the money. That was so long ago. I was raised in the Bay Area and remember that the fare was 25 cents when I was a child in the 1950's. Another dated thing was that he thought DDT was the thing to use all over his girlfriend when she got some kind of insect parasite. hahaha... DDT is so dangerous it was banned in the 1970s - but George R. Stewart didn't know that when he wrote this novel in the 1940's.

 

[Ticklebellly]

Is there any statistical evidence that the lockdowns have even done any good? If we compare places that have locked down to places that haven't, is there any statistically relevant difference?

Interesting story on human behaviour in that book - On the Beach.    So, a bit more info out of my son currently in Australia.    Partial lockdowns implemented and mandatory 14 day quarantine for those entering the country.    Some restrictions on travel between states.   Lots and lots and lots of encouragement re: social distancing.

Results - Country wide, 6660 confirmed cases and 76 deaths.   80% of the deaths were old people and nearly all were imported cases.   Tiny number of person to person infections in country.   Testing being done at massive multiples the rate being done in the US.    Drive Through tests are widely available.   Compliance rates approaching 85% for Social Distancing.   Widespread cooperation between states and it is likely that restriction will start to lift next week.

You cannot do any kind of statistical analysis or comparison on the data available from the US and from Aust.    Data from the US is mostly useless because of poor testing numbers per capita.     However, the method of controlling the spread can be compared.    US method is chaotic and uncoordinated.   Numbers out of Australia show that Lockdowns and Social Distancing and lots of testing and Contact Tracing and Quarantining do work.

Are there any places in the US where Lockdowns have been implemented and controlled and have been complied with by the populous?

 

[Qxxx]

The only real way to be certain, ie using valid control groups in a scientifically observed set of experiments, would be to take 10,000 or so people from typical demographic groups, let Group-A do whatever the hell they want (party, go to restaurants, pubs, and concerts), and have Group-B maintain strict social distancing and other hygienic measures, and then do a post-experiment body count. However, this type of controlled experiment might be frowned upon in modern democratic society.

 

[crofter]

Sounds like LV versus the nomads. Do the nomads get steak in their food drops?
-crofter (its always about the food for crofter)

 

[travelaround]

I think we have a volunteer control group for the "do whatever the hell they want" group - they are called protesters.

 

[Ticklebellly]

The only real way to be certain, ie using valid control groups in a scientifically observed set of experiments, .......

Sweden compared to Norway, is close enough to an experiment using two groups and two different methods.   Sweden (no lockdowns or other spread control methods), 16775 cases, 2021 deaths.    Norway 7041, 194 deaths.    Do the math anyway you want.   

Google "comparisons of control spread in Nordic nations" to find that experts (actual experts) are using the comparison to show what works.

 

[Qxxx]

Yeah, I guess comparing "countries" with and without lockdown is a fairly good metric. In which case the U.S. should be doing well, whereas we're the very worst in the entire world, by far.

Then on top of that, we'll be a good case study for what happens when you un-lockdown prematurely.

 

[user 423]

Premature un-lock. Hmm. Sounds bad.

 

[crofter]

Sweden compared to Norway, is close enough to an experiment using two groups and two different methods.   Sweden (no lockdowns or other spread control methods), 16775 cases, 2021 deaths.    Norway 7041, 194 deaths.    Do the math anyway you want.   

Google "comparisons of control spread in Nordic nations" to find that experts (actual experts) are using the comparison to show what works.

Here is the link about the Scandinavian countries. However they have universal healthcare and the US does not if that makes a difference. Appears to reflect a lower mortality under lockdown, but IMHO all bets are off when lockdown ends.  100 years ago, the second wave (after lockdown ended) was truly bad news. This comparison also states that Sweden will be closer to herd immunity and may not have as bad a second wave. 
-crofter

https://theconversation.com/coronav...-our-best-bet-for-comparing-strategies-135344

 

[bullfrog]

Having healthcare, especially when the provider encourages maintaining health with pre diabetes programs, silver sneakers and gives swag for checkups really seems to make a difference especially after retirement. Unfortunately most people are reluctant to use them after having to pay deductibles and basically being discouraged from using their policies as they may find they have a condition that prevent them from getting health care in the future for most of their lives. This is probably one of the reasons we are seeing so many at risk older people and the reason so many younger people don't want to go to be tested therefore spreading the virus to the older people. The healthcare system in this country isn't just expensive but actually discourages people that need to use it from using it. The pandemic has really shown us we need to change it if we are to overcome diseases like this one. Because it has done so much damage to the economy even rich have come to realize once the workforce is sick they are not gonna make money so maybe they should do something.

 

[1shemp]

Please don't take a certain individuals advice and drink or inject Lysol.

 

[Spaceman Spiff]

Contrary to the opinions of your favorite news sources, the US is doing better than single payer health care nations:



And if you eliminate New York (which is run by idiots) we are doing very well:



So why is the rest of the country on house arrest?