Why is there so much confusing info regarding covid19?

[jacqueg]

Because it is a confusing entity. This article summarizes the reasons.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/pandemic-confusing-uncertainty/610819/

 

[Minivanmotoman]

Excellent article covering all aspects and the complexity of all health and biological issues. It's  not simple nor straightforward leaving much room for interpretation and discussion.

As anyone who has ever read about big pharma studies n stats. They can test till they get the statistical result desired.

 

[jacqueg]

More reason for confusion - https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/03/world/asia/coronavirus-spread-where-why.html

It's not at all clear why some countries have been hit hard, while their neighbors have been hit hardly at all.

To me, it's not just that this is a novel coronavirus - it's also that it isn't acting like other infectious viruses.

There are quite a few pieces to this puzzle, and the overall outline is far from clear.

Stay careful.

 

[maki2]

Some countries are not doing accurate data collection, they don't have the infrastructure and financial budget for that.

Some countries do not wish to share the data due to the stigma and criticism.

Some countries also don't want their own citizens to know the real data as that could lead to rioting and revolution of the government. Outside influences can take advantage of such situations.

As to why some countries are not hit as hard as others. That is pretty easy to answer, they don't have a lot of international travel happening therefore they have had little exposure to the virus in many regions of the country that do not have airports or other mass transportation. Travel is a luxury beyond the reach of many people in certain regions of the world. One of the reasons the USA is so hard hit is because of its relative wealth that allows personal as well as business travel to all regions of the country. The business conventions of various types and activities such as travel during spring vacation in the USA did quite a lot of spreading across the nation of Covid 19. Also it takes money to be able to participate in large music and sports venues that have people sitting and standing close to each other and also have a lot of touching of surfaces by a great many people happening. Travel in the wealthier European nations has done much the same thing to some of those countries. Plus of course there is more contamination happening in larger cities where people live and work closely and use mass transportation and work in buildings of very large sizes with large numbers of employees.

 

[WanderingRose]

It is a new virus, and so scientists and epidemiologists are still learning about who it most affects, how and why.

The flu virus that hit in 1918-1919 affected mostly younger people, from what I have read, who could become ill in the morning and be dead by nightfall.

It’s a mess, that it is.

 

[Tony's Dream]

Some countries don't know how to deal with it or treat it. Just like UFOs, the government doesn't want to share information it does not know how to deal with. It makes them afraid. So it will produce the information it wants to share. Just like in the US, they refuses to test everyone because they are afraid of the results. If you only test some of the people and it looks like fewer people are testing positive, it looks like they are succeeding in controlling the spread. If you control the information, you can control everything. Why will they not release more statistical information about what groups of people are testing positive? All we are hearing is the age break out, not the race or ethnic profiles. They want you to focus on the virus not who is getting sick. A clear pattern of information control.

 

[jacqueg]

Several comments, and not a single person has addressed anything that the article actually said.

Oh well.

 

[maki2]

there is a good article on it in this Monday, May 4 edition of the New York Times. Covid 19 articles are free to read, no subscription required.

 

[B and C]

Is it because the statistics are too general? IDK. I wish they were broken down by age, race, what pre existing conditions and area within a county. All the info I have seen is very vague on real facts.

 

[WanderingRose]

From what I understand, hospitals haven’t consistently been asked for lots of demographics on patients, and the hardest hit areas were barely able to tally admission and death numbers every 24 hours, much less collect and collate other information that would be helpful in retrospect.

I suspect that when things settle down, some of that will be done.

If you have seen any of the news accounts of emergency rooms in places like Chicago and New York City, and interviews with the health care professionals manning them, they have been under siege in ways they could never before have imagined.

Statistics will come over time.

 

[bullfrog]

I believe hospitals have also figured out that the virus has taken many with conditions that might have been able to be controlled if they hadn't gotten the virus and without guidelines to receive federal funding are simply considering a positive test for the virus the cause of death under the crush of huge numbers of deaths. Faster in a situation where time saves lives and more funding for the hospital to continue to stay open.

 

[WanderingRose]

Yep, and I have read that many times when a person is dead or actively dying, because of limited numbers of tests they are not administered but saved for the living.

 

[bullfrog]

Speaking of testing latest antibody testing done by the 12 companies that have a proven accuracy have found the infection rate in California to be 3.1% and in Arizona to be 3.72% which means many have had the virus and survived. In Arizona that works out to about 300,000 not the 85,000 as posted. It also means this virus spreads much more easily than the experts think so those of us over 65 with conditions need to decrease our exposure and take all precautions possible until we find more options to deal with the virus. I see opening up as a bad deal for those of us that are in this group. By the way these states governors haven't even seen these stats but still proceed to open without doing the necessary testing to make informed judgements. Also there are 200 or so tests other than these 12 for antibody testing that are being used that are 85% inaccurate. Does make it hard to get a good picture of the situation.

 

[nature lover]

They feel they have to open up the economy to prevent the worst depression ever, and it might be so. I am in the same boat as bullfrog. So we are the natives being thrown into the volcano to appease the virus gods. I just don't want too get in that line.

 

[jacqueg]

there is a good article on it in this Monday, May 4 edition of the New York Times. Covid 19 articles are free to read, no subscription required.

Oddly, that's exactly the article I linked to in post #3 of this thread.

Kinda proving the point I made in post #7.

 

[WanderingRose]

And just to keep things interesting, a mutation has been found, now widely circulating the globe and this country.


https://www.chicagotribune.com/coro...0200505-lr5pctceo5bltbh2mjkiajbxwq-story.html

 

[Qxxx]

Kinda proving the point I made in post #7.

[font=Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif]I've basically stopped posting to this forum, because unfortunately it has become a place where OT back and forth is continually burying focused discussions. However, one more post ...

[/font]I've read that article a couple of times. and also been watching various tracking sites. The article makes a big point on differences between similar countries, eg Iraq vs Iran, Indonesia vs Malaysia, but it's too early to draw conclusions. It's like in Russia, "there were no cases, until one day there were". The single most important point in the article appears to be (proper) lockdowns, plus reducing and quarantining influx of foreign travelers. 

I made a previous post citing an epidemiologist who stated a very simple rule in regards spread ... if you can HALF the rate of spread (via proper controls), then after a month, there is a whopping reduction in cases, eg 64:1. This is clear to anyone who understands exponential growth. What wrecked the U.S. is that the number of cases doubled every 2.7 days from Feb 29 to Mar 26, and kept going.
https://vanlivingforum.com/showthread.php?tid=39723&pid=490903#pid490903

In regards "lack of information", there is actually more data than anyone can currently understand. IOW, too early to tell. For my part, I have been astounded by the fact that Australia has a tiny case load and death rate (4/million), as compared to european countries with the "same" genetic stock (DR=400/million). They locked down relatively early and it worked. They caught it before it got out of control, and into the exponential growth part of the curve. Then they've waited for significant reduction in new cases before reducing controls. They seem to have done it right on all counts. FWIW, said article did not mention Australia.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/

 

[GypsyJan]

"... those of us over 65 with conditions need to decrease our exposure and take all precautions possible until we find more options to deal with the virus. "

I agree, Bullfrog, and it could last about 2 years...which is ok with me as social distancing is how I prefer humans... in small doses and far apart!

 

[maki2]

Several comments, and not a single person has addressed anything that the article actually said.

Oh well.

People don't want to link to yet another Covid 19 article because they have reached to over-saturation point.

 

[highdesertranger]

political posts will be deleted. a few are already gone. highdesertranger