Surge?

[Yogidog]

me too,i just thought brad might be using all that solar for a railgun

I am wondering about flooding and hurricanes and my beloved tampa, your thought is much more sunny then my gloom and doom!

 

[BradKW]

While railguns are certainly an integral part of any low orbit atmospheric defense plan, I opted for a terawatt laser turret instead. Just seemed much more versatile.

Once again, the Keys dodged another hurricane...been a lot of years since we've been affected. I attribute it to our Get Tough policy regarding Butterflies that cause them. Initial enforcement was a bit chaotic, but now even african ducks know not to fart in out direction.

I didn't vote in the poll because quantum entanglement wasn't provided as an option.

 

[Vagabound]

Here are some graphs that demonstrate that there's steady, almost linear growth in this forum.
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(Note: about 3K of our current membership are known spammers who have been banned from signing back into the forum.)
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The statistic that is the most meaningful to me is the number of active users within the last 24 hours.  ... Now we average about 190 users.  
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No surges, but very healthy growth.

Fantastic!  Data.  Love that data.  Adds meat to the discussion.  Thanks for the graphs.

3,000 spammers?  Not 3, but 3,000.  So, 45% of all registered users are spammers.  Really?  That's astonishing.

190 active users in a 24-hour period (vs. 90 users 2-1/2 years ago) is good growth.  However, what strikes me, again, is the relationships -- active to total.  190 active users out of 6,663 users total (<3%).  Doesn't paint the whole picture, because it is only a 24-hour snapshot, but still interesting.  A more interesting figure would be total active users at some point in a six-month period (or some period) compared to total registered.

You said, "No surges, but very healthy growth."  I'll defer comments on that to my reply to another poster a bit later in the thread.

Thanks again for the great graphs,

Vagabound

 

[Vagabound]

I voted "other." I think it's a good thing that people are choosing to free themselves and find that in vandwelling, and I would never disparage anyone for doing so. However I think the upward influx is a bad thing because the more it catches on the more the government will try to regulate it somehow, and squeeze money out of people who are circumventing property tax etc.

I voted "good" for some complicated reasons, but otherwise, your description sums up my perspective pretty well on both sides of the issue.

Thanks,

Vagabound

 

[Gary68]

While railguns are certainly an integral part of any low orbit atmospheric defense plan, I opted for a terawatt laser turret instead. Just seemed much more versatile.

Once again, the Keys dodged another hurricane...been a lot of years since we've been affected. I attribute it to our Get Tough policy regarding Butterflies that cause them. Initial enforcement was a bit chaotic, but now even african ducks know not to fart in out direction.

I didn't vote in the poll because quantum entanglement wasn't provided as an option.

this is one of the best post i have ever seen,well done brad

 

[TrainChaser]

TGM51: "I think the upward influx is a bad thing because the more it catches on the more the government will try to regulate it somehow, and squeeze money out of people who are circumventing property tax etc."

Probably so. I don't know about the rest of the states, but WA politicians are unhappy about the drop in gas sales (and thus taxes) due to cars that get exceptionally good mileage, and the electric ones, so they want to tax those people BY THE MILEAGE THEY DRIVE.

I think the increase in van dwelling is due to steadily rising prices and stagnant income. If you're living on just ten or twenty thousand a year, it is simply no longer possible to maintain a home. You have to keep cutting things -- you can't keep up the property because your can't afford to maintain it. You have to eliminate more and more because your income simply won't stretch to cover even many basic things. Van dwelling is a far better option than living in a Goodwill sleeping bag under a bridge.

 

[Vagabound]

That's about a 20%+ annualized growth rate in registered users and a 45%+ annualized growth rate in forum content.  This would be linear/steady growth if the adult population was growing at a similar rate; but it's not. The population in the US is growing at a 0.75% rate by comparison.  This rate of increase will probably decline at some future point, but if CRVL was a stock people would be very excited about it.

And ... BOO-YOW ... we have a surge!!  ;-)

I came up with a 33% annualized growth rate in content (both threads and posts), but no matter, the point and effect are the same (and my math is probably wrong).

So, can VDM's linear graphs and AVM's explosive, dare I say surge-y growth calculations, both be correct?  I think so.

Back to the hockey stick analogy.  I think that VDM's linear growth is the "foot" of the hockey stick only.  They show linear growth over a short time period and begin too late to show the curve of the stick and what came before it.  If the graphs were for a 10-year period, I think we'd get to see that same "foot", but also the "curve" (rapid change) and long, slowly-changing "handle" of the stick.  If so, that would make this most recent growth look a lot more like a surge, because a surge would be more defined by the sharp turn or curve in the stick.

One other thing worth noting is that these CRVL forum statistics, as nice as they are, are only a stand-in for the real phenomenon.  They only show a piece of the pie or story, because the full population of vandwellers in the U.S. is not represented.  As such, they can only shed some light on the situation.

In all seriousness, "surge" or "linear increase" aside, I'm guessing that we might all agree that the increase is significant; both statistically and socially.

Thanks,

Vagabound

P.S. - For anyone who's saying, "What's all this crap about hockey sticks?!?", this is a clearer visual example of the reason that term is sometimes applied to graphs:

http://www.justfacts.com/images/globalwarming/hockey_stick_visual.png

 

[Vagabound]

I just brought this topic up to someone last night and asked if I could run it by them at rtr!
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[2] I have heard and i see a kind of standard issue vehicle relex in Windows, propane tank, ect.
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I am examining my personal responsibility in this ...
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So I have no conclusion on this. I am positive everything we do has consequences.

Yogidog,

Speaking only for myself of course, that was an informative, heartfelt, introspective, and mildly provocative post.  That's hard to do.  Superb!  Really added to the topic.

Regarding your comment (that I numbered "2" above), I can't follow your thought, especially "relex".  Can you explain please?

Thanks,

Vagabound

 

[Vagabound]

So I tried to think of something I could do that doesn't have any consequences. I really felt that I was on the right track with naps, until I realized that feeling well rested was indeed a consequence of a good nap.

I almost gave up.

But then I realized that making this post might actually be the most inconsequential thing I could do...

... and the hits just keep coming! 

BradKW: "I didn't vote in the poll because quantum entanglement wasn't provided as an option."

Vote, damn you, vote! ;-) OK, next time I start an inconsequential poll, I'll add "quantum entanglement" as an option.

 

[Yogidog]

Yogidog,

Speaking only for myself of course, that was an informative, heartfelt, introspective, and mildly provocative post.  That's hard to do.  Superb!  Really added to the topic.

Regarding your comment (that I numbered "2" above), I can't follow your thought, especially "relex".  Can you explain please?

Thanks,

Vagabound

Oh good I am improving! Mildy proacative is much better than totally offensive and alienating! 

Iam often on phone concerned about battery in the middle of no where, so it is hard to follow often

What I meant with reflex was the stuff we put in windows. New this year was many with it not covering the window, not keeping cold out or sun out. Then the other additions often advocated for this life style on the internet. As the summer went by some of these vehicles looked more and more pitiful. 

I like to know a little about people I am parking by, so I often have short conversations frequently. I have learned as a traveler to get along with ultrarich down to very poor, it is in my best interest. So i ask about drug addiction in the area,  long story short active drug addict tell me where they get info. They say internet.  Gotta go battery!

 

[Vagabound]

Oh good I am improving! Mildy proacative is much better than totally offensive and alienating! 

In case it wasn't clear, I think "mildly provocative" is a good thing.  If we all made each other think a bit more, we'd be better off.

Reflectix:
https://www.amazon.com/Reflectix-BP24025-24-Inch-25-Feet-Insulation/dp/B0022NH3E4

Battery magic:
https://www.amazon.com/Best-Sellers...le-Phone-Power-Banks/zgbs/wireless/7073960011

 

[Yogidog]

In case it wasn't clear, I think "mildly provocative" is a good thing.  If we all made each other think a bit more, we'd be better off.

Reflectix:
https://www.amazon.com/Reflectix-BP24025-24-Inch-25-Feet-Insulation/dp/B0022NH3E4

Battery magic:
https://www.amazon.com/Best-Sellers...le-Phone-Power-Banks/zgbs/wireless/7073960011

No thanks though u were clear, thats how I took it I was thinking deeply on the subject and wanted to share the burden! Even looked it up to double check, great topic

ˈvä-kə-tiv\
Popularity: Top 10% of words
Simple Definition of provocative

• : causing discussion, thought, argument, etc.

 
I sometimes hate to try and communicate this way I meant no disrespect with homelesss or addicted people, some of my closest friends have been both, creative intelligent people, I give them info all the time. I was trying to make the point that if people are cconcered about these groups we maybe inadvertantly helping them. I should have a section for all my miscomunations!

 

[Yogidog]

I give up more messed up communication because I cut and pasted

 

[BradKW]

I give up more messed up communication because I cut and pasted

Just to review: when you're going to cut/paste, use the Reply button, not the quick reply. This gives you the toolbar. Paste your stuff, write whatever you're going to write, then highlight everything. Then click the "Remove Formatting" button on toolbar...

 

[BradKW]

No thanks though u were clear, thats how I took it I was thinking deeply on the subject and wanted to share the burden! Even looked it up to double check, great topic

ˈvä-kə-tiv\
Popularity: Top 10% of words
Simple Definition of provocative

• : causing discussion, thought, argument, etc.

 
I sometimes hate to try and communicate this way I meant no disrespect with homelesss or addicted people, some of my closest friends have been both, creative intelligent people, I give them info all the time. I was trying to make the point that if people are cconcered about these groups we maybe inadvertantly helping them. I should have a section for all my miscomunations!

And magic happens.