Making $100 at a Casino, professional gambler discussion

[gizmotron]

Thought I'd try something that is not at the RR thread.

I'm sort of busted as an analytical thinker. I was told once that I should become a lawyer. But that would involve being around a lot of people at the most miserable moment of time in their lives. So I ruled that out.

I mentioned earlier that it helps to know where you are headed so that you can focus on the important parts and form a simple base of knowledge to relate to. I didn't say it that way though.

I'm going to break down one simple to understand characteristic of randomness and show how to think about it with regards to RR strategy.

Over at the RR site I mention two things. I mention "sequence of death" and I mention "Elegant Pattern." Now the sequence of death usually refers to a perfect sequence of events that kill off an entire bankroll when playing a progression, like the famous "Martingale Progression."

 

[gizmotron]

It also applies another way in RR. It has an opposite formation in the perfect executing pattern seen as the elegant pattern. Both of these occurrences are extremely rare. Nevertheless you will encounter them at some point.

So to show you what I mean let's take the singles-on-the-weak-side formation or characteristic and show how it can kill off your bankroll.

In that formation you lose a bet once the weak side hits twice, ending the streak of singles. I have suggested that a thing can dominate for a while with slight imperfection, say 90% pure.

So let's say that the singles-on-the-weak-side formation is the only characteristic that you know. So you play virtual bets, stand off minimum bets, that tend to balance minimum bets all by themselves. You do this until you see the singles-on-the-weak-side formation in one of your tracked and charted groupings.

The only way to lose is to place a bet on the strong side and have it end. What I mean is that you wait until the weak side hits once and you bet that the next spin will end up on the strong side. It has been for a short while so you risk a big bet on it. What happens in a sequence of death scenario is that each time you try to exploit the first attempt to win a big bet on that noticed characteristic occurring you always lose that first try attempt. In effect you are in a swarm of first try losses. It's a perfect storm. Your timing and bet selections are off.

This happens once in a while, just like the elegant pattern happens once in a while. If the only characteristic of RR that you know is the singles-on-the-weak-side formation then you will lose sessions when a swarm of first attempt losses occurs in a row. You will lose all 7 of your big bet attempts.

 

[gizmotron]

That is a condition of free fall. It happens. Many players will suspect that the casino has used a way to cheat them. You will hear all kinds of claims on the internet regarding magical powers or capabilities. That's all baloney. All it takes is a perfect sequence of losses to send a player packing and penniless. The casinos don't need to cheat because they know that perfect sequences of randomness are out there to take your bankroll. They just wait. If you pay your way through a losing sequence then you are the casinos newest best friend.

There's the upside to this too. The elegant pattern can work in your favor if you exploit it as if it were a roadmap into future spins. You win every bet in that sequence of winning. Both of these conditions are vary rare when they occur back to back in their own respective forms.

What tends to happen most times and is more common is that you grind up or down with imperfect sequences. You might get one lost bet every three bets. You are grinding upward. You might swing into a sequence where you lose two bets for every bet that wins for a while. You are grinding down.

You must learn to notice the present occurring grinds.

Only knowing one characteristic, like the singles-on-the-weak-side formation, means that you must wait for it to come back to you. Now if you added to that pattern another pattern like the absence-of-singles-on-either-side then you could exploit that new characteristic as long as it would allow you to consistently reward you with at least one winner per sequence.

 

[gizmotron]

Now you would have two characteristics to search for from all six of your groupings. As you can see, the more characteristics that you can visually identify in your charts through visual dexterity, the more chances you have to attempt exploitation. Once again you are always looking out for a perfect sequence or the grind downward where there are too many first attempt losses.

It will happen no matter how good you get. You will have a swarm of first try losses. It will seem like you are deliberately being targeted.

Every trend player that gives up on trends and becomes an advocate for hating trends tends to warn other people that it won't work. They go about on the internet and try to warn people that trends don't work. It's only a sign and admission that they have never considered that trends do work at times, just not at all times. They don't know how to take advantage of the times when they do work. It's funny. All you have to do is notice the times it does not work and the times that it does work. RR is not a license to treat a casino as your own personal ATM machine. You must use the up and down swings and target the good patches.

Now you see the strategy in a small condensed explanation. Just add more characteristics and apply conditional awareness. Become skillful in visual dexterity. It's actually a simple method once you know the strategy.

 

[gizmotron]

Looks like just a few people here are trying this to see if they can gain the skills needed to do it.

I tried to teach my sister an earlier version of this and she got all bogged down in how exactly to go about it. She has never gone into a casino to gamble, does not know how to buy in with Roulette table chips or to cash out for that matter.

She was using the software and had no experience filling out index cards at the table while playing. She would be slow and clumsy getting the chips down in time while reaching over, under, and around other players trying to get their bets down in time.

Everyone trying this will have to deal with real world conditions.

I recommend getting a cheap felt Roulette layout and placing it on a table. I also recommend getting some real weighted practice casino chips for that same feel in handling them. You can use my practice software to generate spins. You can also get live spins form a real live casino in Germany that are posted in their charts for free. That way you will add learning to getting the bets down in time. To get really good learning to fill in index cards and read them should all be part of this. They don't allow computers or phones turned on at Roulette tables.

 

[RvNaut]

Have considered writing a book?

 

[gizmotron]

Have considered writing a book?

I did. I also considered an online teaching course. In both cases I would be required to support the activates. I don't want the revenue that would come from it, pennies to a few bucks. Hosting a website would be a pain too. I'd rather spend my time fishing and camping.
I like doing it this way. I gave it to a small group of people in the gambling world. The thread where I attempted to guide people through a self taught tutorial turns out to be the best way to share it. And I get the skeptics, trolls, and the math centric absolutism wing mixed in with real people considering it. But it's done. I already did the work. I built the software, I created the examples. Other people created examples. It's good enough.

People want proof that it works. It took me more than 25 years to filter out what does not work and what does. Nobody made a scientific study of trends and patterns in the entire gambling world before this. It gets mentioned in places by others but always comes up short of what works and what does not work.

I actually took advice from stock traders to get this all worked out. 

I tried to get a community of people that I know the first shot at this from the music business.  I was involved with Young American Showcase back in the early 90's. I tried to get them to check it out. Nothing, crickets. So a book or a bunch of YouTube videos is just so much effort for very little return.

I'm still using it to subsidize my own personal income anyway. I'm also living with heart failure. Have been for almost 14 years now.
This is the real thing. Others have said so. It's also only known by a small handful of people. It's just right the way that it is.

I get it that Ed Thorp wrote 'Beat The Dealer.' He was an academic professor from MIT. His interests were in furthering mathematics. 

If only a few people in the van & nomad community want to use it, that's fine with me. I can't promise anything because I can't make anyone do the work it takes to become skillful. I take a person past all the mistakes that I made and direct them with a rigid set of recommendations in order to get around the lack of inexperience with things like greed and self control. 

So I see it this way. I can go take out a small chunk from a casino or I can get seasonal work around Christmas at Amazon or pick Beets in Idaho for a few weeks. There's camp hosting and maintenance too. People want money. I'm just offering people I like a chance before it is too late.

I want Reading Randomness to be known and I also want to still use it for a few years. There are a ton of casinos out there.

 

[gizmotron]

Here, Bob should get a big laugh about this. He does all those great videos that help people.

This is why I wouldn't do this completely on YouTube. This was my first try:

[video=youtube]

It's best to view this in full screen mode on a computer screen big enough to see it all.

 

[gizmotron]

So there has been a steady stream of people from here that are at least curious what is being taught at the Reading Randomness site. There has not been that kind of traffic for more than a year. It's up around 4,000 views in the past week. I don't see where people have logged in though. That's the only way that you can see the pictures in full size. Perhaps they are logged in, only in hidden mode? Some of the pictures matter. Some of the people that tried this in public showed their results and explanations in picture form.

Doesn't really matter. It hit more than a 1,000 views in a day for a while and has now fallen off to 800 per day now.

I will consider this worth it if just 10 people from here master the skills. It is unknown how many from around the world are using this. It's been more than two years since I first posted it.

It's hard to figure people out on this. I know the first student was great at it. This self taught thread is wide open. I'm guessing here. People might be using it effectively and keeping it to themselves while they can. I mean nobody has come out against it in the gambling community except for people that refuse to try it. I mean that nobody has set out to disprove it. That is almost a trademark of gambling forums. Everything gets tested and exposed.

Then there is the chance that everyone is just being nice to me because I'm sincere in my effort to share it freely. Kind of like, let's feel sorry for the poor deluded idiot and give him some slack. "Cut me some slacks."

 

[gizmotron]

Posted near the Reading Randomness thread in the Roulette section. Someone asked if anyone is consistently winning. I answered with this comment:

"Myself and a few others have been trained or trained themselves in the skills presented in the Roulette section titled 'Reading Randomness.' Everyone of these that have demonstrated success have shown that they lose a few strategically regulated sessions once in a while. But that is made up for with the fact that they have demonstrated consistently that they win enough times to come out ahead, on average, about two to one playing an almost even chance odds game. Current mathematical assumptions dictates that this is impossible to achieve. Nevertheless a few skilled players are doing so. That thread is presented as a self taught exercise. It includes practice software so that a person can prove to themselves that they have the talent or not. It is a typical discussion thread strewn with the usual distractions and interruptions from gambling skeptics to trolls. It also includes the work done by others that have taught themselves."

 

[gizmotron]

Most people will never pick up on this. For the past 25 years I have dropped hints in other people's discussion topics all throughout the gambling world's more active discussion forums. I've told people that there are things going on in randomness that nobody is looking at or that is concerned to find out if it is true.

People will look at a possibility that a stock trading method might have merit. Stock trading has always been for me gambling for those that would never get caught dead in a casino. Yet you have the same problems in stock trading. People make stock decisions on risk the same that degenerate gamblers throw away their bankrolls. It's part of human nature and gaining self control.

My Reading Randomness instruction thread at the gambling forum uses a rigid set of controlled recommendations in order to validate skill level progress. That was to serve two purposes. First it is for new gamblers to gain almost instant self control over their gambling processes. Second it is to create a control group that ends up validating the average win to loss ratio in skilled practitioners of the skills presented in the Reading Randomness thread.

The basic strategy is to have two bet levels, not a progression, that are used together to specifically target trends or patterns when they are in or out of a state of effectiveness. This requires a method of tracking, confirmation, and evaluation. It's an acquired skill.

 

[gizmotron]

To use these skills in a strategic way a person might want to duplicate a person that invests in the stock market to get a monthly dividend check.

If a skilled RR player were to use just $126 as the big bet ($18 per try times 7 investment) and $5 as the small bet, stand off bet, then they could participate in the 3 / 7 strategy on a Roulette table in under three hours per session. They would lose a few sessions at $126 loss each. But they would win enough to make up for that amount at around twice as much. Their profit would end up being around 100% every 5.66 sessions as demonstrated by newly trained in the skills required, by their own progress.

That means that at the $1 chip price buy in, selecting 18 numbers on a big bet, $18, a strategic rigid method would produce around $126 every 6 sessions played. A traveling nomad could stay in the parking lot of a casino, play two session per day, stay two days if they let you, and take an average return on investment of around $80, with losses included.

 

[gizmotron]

Now when it comes to loses, in the past 2+ years, no player ever experienced 4 lost sessions in a row. So having a total bankroll of five times $126 is required before making any investments. Part of RR skills is in avoiding downtrends. These players that have achieved this 2 to 1 win to loss ratio in money are all skilled and have studied for months.

Now $80 profit in 2.5 days might not be enough. If you move up to $5 chips at buy in then your big bets are $90. Your session bankroll is $630. Your 5 times that amount comes to a little more than $3,000. But you average around $400 from every 5.5 sessions played.

If you play 22 days per month then you are talking about a steady $1,600 a month from a $3,000 investment, after you have demonstrated and proven to yourself that you in fact have the proper skills. My experience is that you will do a little better as you acquire more knowledge of randomness characteristics.

 

[gizmotron]

The following is a simple test to see if you have the capacity to learn this or if you are just wasting your time with it.

I have placed a text chart printed in non proportional sized text so that the columns would all line up. There are two pictures also.

If you are interested in this then try to see if you can figure two things out in all three examples.

Look at the left column that starts with "W" at the top of the column. If it is blank on a line then it means that the last bet lost. If it has an "X" then it won. If it has a hyphen, ( " - " ), then it was not funded and is considered a virtual bet selection. The result is still charted though.

Now look at the graph. Then look at the chart's win / loss column. Look at the picture of the chart's win / loss column.

Can you see the win streak? Can you see the losing streak? That's all that you need to know. Can you visualize the win streaks and the losing streaks in the "W" column?  If you can then you have enough brain capacity to do this. If you can't then you should pass on this. They don't let you use a computer at a Roulette table. So there won't be graphs. They will allow you to fill in lined index cards that look just like these examples while you play. I suppose you could also hand write your own graph on a separate index card. I've never needed it.

----------------------------------------- 

 W | B  R | O  E | L  H | 0  6 | P | S |  --  SN  --  SP 
 nb|    X |    X | X    |    X | X | X |  --  01  --  12 
 nb| X    | X    | X    | X    |   | X |  --  02  --  13 
 nb| X    |    X | X    |    X |   |   |  --  03  --  08 
 nb|    X |    X |    X |    X |   |   |  --  04  --  34 
 nb|--------------------| X    | X | X |  --  05  --  38 
 nb| X    |    X |    X |    X |   | X |  --  06  --  20 
 nb|    X | X    |    X | X    |   | X |  --  07  --  25 
 X | X    |    X |    X |    X |   | X |  --  08  --  20 ( $ 90 ) Black
 -|    X |    X |    X |    X |   |   |  --  09  --  34 ( $ 90 ) Specials
  | X    |    X | X    | X    |   | X |  --  10  --  10 ( $ -10 ) Not Specials
 X-| X    |    X | X    | X    |   | X |  --  11  --  10 ( $ -10 ) Even
  | X    | X    | X    | X    |   | X |  --  12  --  13 ( $ -100 ) Even
 X |    X |    X | X    |    X | X | X |  --  13  --  12 ( $ -10 ) Even
  | X    | X    |    X | X    |   | X |  --  14  --  35 ( $ -100 ) Even
  | X    |    X | X    |    X |   |   |  --  15  --  08 ( $ -190 ) Zeros
 X | X    |    X | X    |    X | X |   |  --  16  --  06 ( $ -110 ) Not Specials
 X-|    X |    X |    X | X    |   |   |  --  17  --  36 ( $ -110 ) Red
 X | X    | X    | X    |    X | X | X |  --  18  --  11 ( $ -20 ) Black
 X | X    |    X | X    |    X |   |   |  --  19  --  08 ( $ 70 ) Black
 X | X    |    X | X    |    X | X |   |  --  20  --  04 ( $ 160 ) Black
 X | X    | X    |    X | X    |   | X |  --  21  --  35 ( $ 250 ) Black

 

[gizmotron]

At the same forum where the RR thread is being taught a person that is so wonderfully happy with his new discovery of the Martingale progression is directed to look at the 'Reading Randomness' thread in the Roulette section. The thread that this is in is located under the name 'Is Anyone Beating This Game Consistently?' The guy asking & posting with the Martingale progression is karumba, a person taking a beating at the 'Wizard of Vegas' gambling forum, a place that will not tolerate discussion's that oppose mathematical dogma. So he came to this other gambling forum to show off his new found discovery, basically "doubling down."

Punkcity: "If you haven’t already read the reading random thread do yourself a favor and read it , skip the usual distraction inflammatory posts there are many, cut to the chase as there is plenty of meat on the bone. I took notes as I went through the thread imho very worthwhile information for anyone doing business in the casinoverse. Cheers"

Both Punkcity & karumba are from Australia.

 

[gizmotron]

So I started to think how I can do what I have set out to do.

I want Reading Randomness to eventually change the world in a good way. It will effect every research scientist that utilizes statistical mathematics. It's very close to some of the things John F. Nash Jr. and his Equilibrium brought forward. Only I invented the practical use for it first, not the math that establishes it. I'm not a mathematician. That's just too many blown brain cells.

Anyway, I can see having a very limited size caravan going around places and including a few at a time dropping into casinos. It could be part of another caravan or the whole idea of it can be independent. I will teach in person, not like the teaching thread. I will be able to help those that get stuck. I will also carry a real Roulette felt table layout and at least 6 player position chips enough to actually run real practice play sessions. I could even go in with one or two other's to do actual play. I can't think of a more perfect way to evaluate a person's skill level.

Talk about fun traveling. I wonder if that might interest anyone? I won't be able to get out as winter is about to hit and I'm here in southern Idaho at 4,000ft. I'll work on a lot of things for the van this winter. I can run a small oil based radiator heater in it so that I can work. But come next spring and summer I can see doing some kind of improvised gathering of interested people.

 

[gizmotron]

Just in case anyone is interested I thought I would conclude with a little context. If any of you have not bothered to attempt to gain the skillful use of RR, that's normal. In fact it's expected. This thread among Nomads is the only thread in the world where it was attempted to be discussed outside of the interest's of the gambling world. It will take experts in human nature to see why it fell flat on its face. I won't even try to figure out why. If I were to guess I would suppose it has a lot to do with fear. But that is not why I want to conclude this.

So just for the sake of reading, like some of you might want to know the implication's of Reading Randomness and have nothing else to do all cooped up in the rain somewhere. I will attempt to encapsulate it in a few last posts on this subject.

Millionaire? People would like to be a millionaire. That's if it does not require going outside of their comfort zone. The nomads just happen to be people that do that willingly. In fact they go out of their way to gather and to help others. That is why I chose them to be the first group outside of the gambling world to get the heads up.

Now back to context. This requires being led along down the path of a basic understanding of odds, long term odds, and expectations as a belief system that is about to be dismantled. Let's assume that gambling is for suckers because you can't win. That should be the end of it, right? But people keep searching for a way to beat it anyway. I have set out in exposing RR to the world in order to change all that. So the challenge for me is to see if I can or already have.

 

[gizmotron]

Context:

People use to think that there is no way to beat Blackjack, 21. Then Ed Thorpe came along back in 1961 and published the book 'Beat The Dealer.' The casinos went nuts for a few years, decades in fact. Then they discovered that most people would like to believe that they are skillful enough to use the advantage. Only they generally tend to fail at it out of fear. They can't sustain the effects of the natural flow of randomness and coincidence in order to come out ahead in the long run. "In the long run" is how you count cards and beat the game. A perfect sequence of randomness can temporarily sideline the effect of advantage in that strategy. So they get taken out by fear or by the end of their not well thought out bankroll.

So the casinos now let them try. The casinos don't ban a card counter anymore unless they are a winner. Consequently the casino makes a lot more money in the long run these days because of the mistakes made by well intentioned inexperienced players.

Here is the rub in all that. If you were to flat bet Blackjack, you could never succeed at beating it. You must bet small when the casino is in a phase of winning more bets than losing bets. You must bet big when the cards are in a phase of your advantage. This up and down betting strategy is what tells the casino pit bosses and dealers that you are a card counter. So they are easy to spot. But this is also the funny part. Beginners tend to act on the same kinds of fears that new stock traders tend to place their actions on.

Those are the players that can't pull the trigger at the right time. That's why having a team is so effective. Everyone know what to do and when and how.

It only takes a few hands at the big price to change the outcome of the gambling session.

 

[gizmotron]

Take the Pelayos family for instance. They marched across Europe one year and took millions off of the casinos with just a 6 in 100 advantage.

Let me explain that. In Roulette you have a small disadvantage on each spin. Out of 100 spins on average you are expected to lose 52 times and win 48 times. You get killed if you are to flat bet the same amount on each spin in that scenario. But the Pelayos found an advantage. They found a way to get just 6 extra wins in each 100 spins. So 52 wins for the casino becomes 46. And 48 wins for the Pelayos becomes 54. All of a sudden the Pelayos Family is playing a game that favors them and not the casino. It did not take much to take millions off the casinos because the casinos had no idea that there was an advantage like that.

Now let's break down the numbers for Reading Randomness.

If I were to explain it with so many wins or losses in 100 spins then it would look like this. You are expected to win 48 bets out of 100. You are expected to lose 52 bets out of 100. It only takes those extra 4 differences to keep Roulette going for more than 200 years. If the player could just get two more wins per 100 spins then they would have 50 wins to 50 losses. That would be considered a fair coin flip.

Now Reading Randomness comes along and sees long termed winning results, by skilled players, that the good ones are getting 66 net wins for every 34 net losses in 100 spins. This is because the same strategy to bet small at times and to bet big at times works far better than counting cards does. You don't wait for an actual advantage due to "variable change" like in Blackjack. You wait for natural coincidence to change the situation to your advantage. It is not mathematical. It is taking advantage of coincidences that look the same as a mathematical advantage on a temporary basis. It takes a skilled person to see the changes and act on them effectively.

 

[gizmotron]

So by example I will break down the numbers of the strategy. On the big bets you try to win just 3 net wins and the session is done. If you get down to 7 net lost bets then the session is done.

So you must win 2.33 sessions to balance out a single session that lost. Mathematics dictates that you will only win 2 sessions for each session lost. So if you can win 2.33 sessions in the long term then you will have changed the entire world of statistics. It is believed that nobody can do that. I'm talking about a fair game that does not seem to have any noticeable advantages.

So if you are terrible at learning RR and you can only get to 2.66 sessions won at 3 net wins each to each lost session at 7 net losses then you will have changed the world. You will have enough skill to march across Europe and take millions off of the casino before they know what you are doing.

I've watched several people reach 4.66 sessions won at 3 net wins to each 7 net lost session. I'm talking about long term and skill. That is their average, if not even better after several months. It comes down to having skill and self control.

Try to see it this way. Back to the so many wins out of 100. You can lose the 52 times that you should and still blow the casino out of the water and win. The assumption is that all your bets will be at the same price. All you need to do is to lose just 6 out of 100 bets at a low price to break the bank. If you were to exchange those low bets to 6 big bets won then you would be killing it. That is how it is done in terms of money. You don't win 66 times in 100 bets. You just make twice as much money as you lose.

So you want to learn to see when your selections are losing. That's when you stop funding the losing streaks. Experts expect you to lose more big bets that you can win. They do this with odds.

But the odds never tell you when a win streak will start, how long it will last, and when it will end. The same holds true for a losing streak.

You must become skilled at seeing these trends. All you need is 6 extra wins out of 100 to take millions off of the casinos. So don't throw good money at a losing patch.