How soon will electric or hybrid vans/RVs be common?

[Sky King]

eDJ Very good video, Thanks! Almost like being around when when the 1st cars were being developed. Here's my favorite EV

 

[user 32988]

That's as ugly as my first van. A'66 Chevy short box van I used to go motocrossing in.

I think I kind of like it actually... It's got a kind of modernized-retro look to it.

I saw a big Nissan passenger van driving home from the beach the other day... was shocked because I'd never seen it before and then when it passed me I saw that it had Mexico plates. Something called the NV350 Urvan.

Too bad we can't have nice things here. We have some really stupid auto importation laws and NHTSA regulations.

 

[rruff]

The vans that are ubiquitous all over the world can't be sold in the US because of crash standards. They'd be perfect to live in and get good MPG too.

 

[RonDean]

I have really debated with myself on replying further on this subject. I am actually surprised by the push-back to the desirability of changing from ICE to EV. In the end I decided to try one more time. I hope the following is not too long. As several of my links have gone belly up (probably something I did wrong) I was forced to delete them. But I can do further research and provide sources for each point if desired.

Contention: Transitioning from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to electric vehicles (EVs) is crucial for a variety of reasons, including environmental, economic, and societal benefits.

1. Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions:
   • ICE vehicles emit greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide, which contribute to climate change. EVs produce zero tailpipe emissions and are more energy-efficient. They can be charged with renewable energy sources, making them a key part of reducing overall emissions.
2. Improving Air Quality:
   • ICE vehicles emit pollutants that have adverse health effects, including particulate matter, nitrogen oxides, and volatile organic compounds. EVs help improve urban air quality, reducing health problems and related healthcare costs.
   • Source: Union of Concerned Scientists - Cleaner Cars from Cradle to Grave
3. Energy Efficiency:
   • EVs are more energy-efficient compared to ICE vehicles. They convert a higher percentage of the electrical energy from the grid to power at the wheels. This results in less energy waste and lower operating costs.
4. Reducing Oil Dependence:
   • ICE vehicles rely on oil, which can lead to geopolitical conflicts, supply disruptions, and price volatility. EVs reduce dependence on oil and can help enhance energy security.
5. Lower Operating Costs:
   • EVs generally have lower operating and maintenance costs. They have fewer moving parts, no need for oil changes, and lower fuel costs, making them more cost-effective over the long term.
6. Promoting Renewable Energy Integration:
   • EVs can be charged with electricity from renewable sources like wind and solar. This promotes the adoption of clean energy technologies and reduces the carbon footprint of the transportation sector.
7. Reducing Noise Pollution:
   • EVs are quieter than ICE vehicles, which can lead to a reduction in noise pollution in urban areas, improving the quality of life for residents.
   • Source: European Environment Agency - Noise pollution
8. Job Creation and Economic Opportunities:
   • Transitioning to EVs creates opportunities for new jobs in manufacturing, infrastructure development, and technology sectors, supporting economic growth.
9. Technological Innovation:
   • The shift to EVs encourages technological advancement and innovation in battery technology, charging infrastructure, and energy management systems.
10. Reducing Health Costs:
    • A transition to EVs can result in reduced healthcare costs due to improved air quality and reduced cases of respiratory illnesses linked to air pollution.

Transitioning to electric vehicles is a multifaceted solution that addresses environmental concerns, enhances energy efficiency, and provides economic and societal benefits. It is an integral part of efforts to combat climate change and improve the quality of life for people worldwide.

 

[Happy Camper]

I agree with some of the above post and disagree with other parts. I would explain, but I realize that I'm not going to change anyone's mind on the subject.

Which to me is the problem.

 

[eDJ_]

Glad you could see it Gr8ful. Everytime I click on the link it skips around on me. But it just posted this morning and it may take awhile to be posted on youtube etc.

Isn't that photo of Jay Leno with his Baker Electric Car.

I believe it was Dr. Ferdinand Porsche who designed the first hybrid electric car in the early 1900's. Then when you think of it German Submarines were hybrid Diesel Electric's.

But the relative simplicity of building these future electric vehicles from standardized parts will make it easier and cheaper than the present manner. Toyota's new Prius connects everything about the car from the instrument console via Bluetooth wireless. As the video I linked to stated in the future it will be more about the operating software used than anything else. (as they are borrowing the methods from Cell Phone construction)

 

[Sky King]

eDJ yes it is Jay Leno's EV. When cars started it was a fight between elect, steam & fuel. Gasoline was a byproduct of lamp oil.
EVs IMHO are the coming thing but they tech is 5-10 years away or more & may not replace all ICEs. The US is a huge country not like the UK & others that are small & have public transportation. They are being forced on us, have a tiny range & cost more. I have an 1993 Ambulace with 88k miles that runs like new. Do you think a 30 year EV will last that long without major maintenance?

 

[RonDean]

I agree with some of the above post and disagree with other parts. I would explain, but I realize that I'm not going to change anyone's mind on the subject.

Which to me is the problem.

Happy Camper, I don't really expect to change any firmly set minds either. I do hope I might slightly influence the few that might be on the fence. I would also be happy to provide further source data on any of my specific points to anyone that might be interested in the spirit of conversation. But, I don't want to belabor the issue to the point of being pugnacious (my word for the day).

Gr8ful, I got to ride in a Baker Electric in a parade when I was a kid visiting relatives in Nebraska. I still remember it! Maybe that's where I got the electric car bug. That strange lady with the funny car across the street "infected" me.

 

[Sky King]

Ron, my youngest son got to drive the replica of Henry Ford's 1st car out of the replica wall Henry had knocked down to get it out while we were at Greenfield Village. I love that Baker!

 

[eDJ_]

I got to speak with an Electrical Engineer a couple of months ago about electric cars and he was of the opinion that it is early in the development of these vehicles. He believed that we are still trying to build them along the same lines that we have traditionally built internal combustion motored cars.

In his view a major shift in thinking of these vehicles is in order. Internal combustion engines may carry on in Trucks and Service Vehicles while personal transportation would give way to EV's.
EV's would be built to be modular such that maintenance would be
"quick swaps" (motor/transmission & battery pack) Coach, suspension, brakes, would remain the same for the time being.

He reminded me that these things go thru generations of change. When he was in school he drove a "seventh generation" Honda Civic that he spoke highly of. But a 2023 Civic is now an eleventh generation model. It will be the same with EV's.

Last week I spoke with a woman I knew some years ago when she was driving an early Honda Hybrid. It was an "Insight" which had some design flaws she spoke of. Primarily, you couldn't flip a switch that would allow the driver to go on "engine power" thus uncoupling the hybrid. Honda did not provide that option. She explained that on more than a few occasions in the fall/winter months that driving with wipers, headlights, heater fan going it pushed the limits of the battery. She would have to pull over and turn off the lights and other accessories to allow the battery recharge enough to get on home. (or call her Dad to come get her) This is what she explained to me. Otherwise she loved driving it in daylight in nice weather.

My own father explained to me that he saw the future of cars as being lease only vehicles. (much like rental cars) In this manner they could be inspected, serviced, and recertified. I think he was seeing it that way due to Government regulations on pollution, mpg, safety inspection etc.

But EV's may lend themselves better to quick swap motor/transmission and battery modules. Some of these odd looking vehicles we see may owe to producing a body with a minimum of stamped material. It's why they look like school kids lunch boxes.

 

[user 22017]

Chinese firm Xpeng is introducing an electric pickup truck for use as an emergency vehicle. Article about the truck: https://www.drive.com.au/news/chinese-firm-unveils-six-wheel-tesla-cybertruck-clone/

 

[RonDean]

I got to speak with an Electrical Engineer a couple of months ago about electric cars and he was of the opinion that it is early in the development of these vehicles. He believed that we are still trying to build them along the same lines that we have traditionally built internal combustion motored cars. In his view a major shift in thinking of these vehicles is in order. Internal combustion engines may carry on in Trucks and Service Vehicles while personal transportation would give way to EV's.
EV's would be built to be modular such that maintenance would be "quick swaps" (motor/transmission & battery pack) Coach, suspension, brakes, would remain the same for the time being.
---
My own father explained to me that he saw the future of cars as being lease only vehicles. (much like rental cars) In this manner they could be inspected, serviced, and re certified..

I agree about rethinking vehicles and transportation in general. I'm not a big fan of the looks of the Tesla PU, but you have to admit it they thought outside of the box. I much prefer the looks of the little vans Rruff posted. If we could just get EV versions of those in the US I would figure out a way to shoehorn myself into one.

As far as leasing and renting vehicles, for most of the folks out there that makes good sense. After all, most vehicles spend the majority of their time just parked somewhere. For people that live in their vehicles it would need a different dynamic. Leasing or renting would preclude us from "building out or modifying" something to live in. Even buying something not previously designed as something to camp or live in forces us to consider resale value.

 

[eDJ_]

^^^ RD

I worked with an Outdoor Advertising group in North Carolina for awhile. They had this little micro van made in Japan by Daihatsu (S40). Two guys used it to go out and do electrical lighting service. One was a heavy set fellow and the other was tall and slender. (and he drove it most of the time)

It was always a sight and with much laughter to see him open his door to be able to stretch his long left leg to get his foot to the clutch in order to shift gears. The door would open and close several times till he got up to speed. I always thought it should be used at a Circus loaded with Clowns.

Today, I would think public safety laws would restrict that but back then..........

I once saw one of these set up as a Food Truck and it looked like a pop up tent camp trailer riding on the back of it. But later models of these did have some innovative designs.

I agree that owner built out designs would require ownership. It seems the Germans at VW went thru this with those early VW Van Campers which may have been fine for weekends, vacations, and the occasional traveling student or salesperson. (who could live with a set design standard) But as most Nomadic inclined folks know it isn't a one size fits all world for them. On the other hand a lot of today's Nomads may have started out in a VW Camper Van or a "No Build" where somewhat replicated VW's thinking in their build.

I would think that there could still be a market for factory built camper vans for people who aren't tall. (women ? many of whom are 5'5") But they would have to live/adapt with the set builds that are offered. The plus side for them is they wouldn't have to build. (just buy, make payments with extended warranty, and enjoy.

 

[Fork King]

To each thier own. I love ICE vehicles & personally do not belive the hype about how green EV's are. It takes over 10 years for EV's to finally offset the pollution they created during production.

Just getting the rare earth material for the batteries is destroying the environment and SLAVE LABOR to boot.

Personally for nomadic living steer clear of EV junk. ICE vehicles will be dominating the market for the next 30 years and beyond.

 

[user 22017]

To each thier own. I love ICE vehicles & personally do not belive the hype about how green EV's are. It takes over 10 years for EV's to finally offset the pollution they created during production.

Ultimately, Hoekstra suggests that a better break-even point estimate is 16,000 miles, or about 26,000 kilometers.


Zeke Hausfather, a climatologist and senior fellow at environmental research center The Breakthrough Institute, came up with a similar 15,000-mile break-even estimate in an article for "Carbon Brief," a U.K.-based news site focusing on climate change.


Reuters arrived at a similar conclusion. Using a model developed by the Argonne National Laboratory, Reuters determined that a Tesla Model 3 would need to be driven 13,500 miles before its carbon savings paid off, compared with a Toyota Corolla, when driving in the United States. That’s about 22,000 kilometers.


However, not all scientists agree with putting the break-even point that low.


A 2022 report from the Union of Concerned Scientists estimated the "zero emissions" break-even point is 21,300 miles for an electric vehicle. Another researcher, Damien Ernst at the University of Liege in Belgium, suggested the EV break-even number was between 42,000 and 94,000 miles.


Why do estimates vary?


"It mainly depends on the electricity mix over the lifetime," Hoekstra told us. "Secondly, it depends on battery size and type versus the frugality of the combustion car you are comparing against. The biggest problem is that most calculations are made very imperfectly."

More: https://www.politifact.com/article/2022/dec/06/carbon-dioxide-released-during-production-electric/

 

[Sky King]

They are estimates which are WAGs aka Wild Arse Guesses, the low ones by people who want EVs, I'd trust the higher ones as they're probably either real OR made by non EV fans. Please answer the Child Slave Labor & Longevity issue. I like Great Old Machines & had 1938, 1940, 1946, 1947 airplanes, steel wheel tractors, 1930 cars, etc. Looks like we will own nothing & be happy, Sorry Not for Me!
"If a law is unjust, a man is not only right to disobey it, he is obligated to do so." - Thomas Jefferson

 

[rruff]

I'd trust the higher ones as they're probably either real OR made by non EV fans.

I've found they are usually made by people sowing chaos, confusion, division, and conflict... and have a big investment in maintaining the status quo.

This is true of a lot of dysfunctional systems. Medicine, education, and finance come to mind.

 

[user 22017]

They are estimates which are WAGs aka Wild Arse Guesses, the low ones by people who want EVs, I'd trust the higher ones as they're probably either real OR made by non EV fans.

From the article:

Why do estimates vary?


"It mainly depends on the electricity mix over the lifetime," Hoekstra told us. "Secondly, it depends on battery size and type versus the frugality of the combustion car you are comparing against. The biggest problem is that most calculations are made very imperfectly."

 

[user 22017]

I've found they are usually made by people sowing chaos, confusion, division, and conflict... and have a big investment in maintaining the status quo.

Really? You found that?

 

[Sky King]

IMHO This is a dead horse issue here & I know when to quit beating the poor horse so I'm out. Enjoy yourselves & no hard feelings!