The State of the Economy

[Seraphim]

This shows what I have thought to be true. That The baby boomers will have to work beyond retirement age or retire from the careers they worked at all their life to do something else part time or full time until they can't work any more.

I'm afraid that's going to be true for many. The last recession hit a large group of people on many different fronts: housing, jobs and finances. The young have time to recover. Those nearer retirement age, whose security was decimated, don't have the time necessary before retirement to recover; so they must keep working to maintain their desired lifestyle, or in some cases, just to survive.

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It's not what we expected when we began working for our part of the Dream...

 

[ccbreder]

Income inequality is approaching the conditions of 1890 - 1910.
World fuel prices are being depressed to punish Russia, they depend 99% on oil and gas income. Once their economy is destroyed costs will rise again.

 

[cdiggy]

Income inequality is approaching the conditions of 1890 - 1910.
World fuel prices are being depressed to punish Russia, they depend 99% on oil and gas income. Once their economy is destroyed costs will rise again.

I don't think Russia has been the same since Reagan destroyed their economy. :^D

 

[Seraphim]

Income inequality is approaching the conditions of 1890 - 1910.
World fuel prices are being depressed to punish Russia, they depend 99% on oil and gas income. Once their economy is destroyed costs will rise again.

The question becomes, how to resolve the inequality.

A company has to decide what each job in its Table of Organization is worth, in relation to the value of the finished product. The company decides wrong and it either can't find workers willing to do the job for that wage, or it prices it's end product far higher than its competitors product, resulting in a lack of sales.

Highly effective CEOs are relatively rare - which is why you'll see them grabbed up by another company when they've left a position. Yet people complain about the amount of compensation they make. A CEO can make or destroy a company. A company wants the best it can afford, and bidding for a successful CEO runs high.

The jobs in between run the gamut of wages. The more a job's performance affects the success of a company, the more experience and skill sets required to perform, the higher wage it it demands, and is worth. And in these jobs, there is more available money for employees to save and invest. Income inequality grows.

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The government can't change the wages a business pays - that's a decision the owner(s) must make. This is a private competitive market.

All the government can do is levy taxes on the various types of income. Taxing a company itself is nothing more than taxing consumers, since the company must incorporate all costs in the final price of its product. So all the government can do is increase taxes on capital gains, which the legislature isn't going do for personal reasons. Beyond biting the hand which funds their campaigns, most of them would be cutting their own personal incomes.

And even if if capital gains taxes increase, how would that additional money be passed onto lower income families? At least, passed on in a manner which makes everyone on the receiving end happy...

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IMO, additional taxes would never reach the lower income families. The politicians would end up using it use it for their own pet projects.

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Above should read 'additional tax revenue'

 

[HarmonicaBruce]

O dear, where to begin.

There are no emaciated photos of people, so there are no hungry people.

Yes, that is correct.

If there were, your solution is to steal, if they don't meet the criteria for food stamps.

I DID NOT say that. You're putting words in my mouth. In places around the world where there really is hunger, they have to guard the food to stop people from stealing it. The fact that we don't have to do that in Detroit indicates that there is no hunger. Who doesn't meet the criteria for food stamps? I tried to get food stamps, I was told I had too much money in my IRA to qualify.

All hungry children go hungry because of poor parenting.

Basically, yes. Good parents don't let their children go hungry in America.

But if everything is hunky-dory with the current economic situation, they shouldn't be homeless to begin with. I guess they all want be homeless, or they'd just prefer to be homeless rather than get a job or hunt squirrels?

Yes, they prefer to be homeless.

Gotta steal the materials for a trap, or a gun, but that's OK with you.

I don't put words in your mouth, tempting as it might be, so please show me the courtesy of not putting words in my mouth. You can trap a squirrel with a rat trap and some peanuts.

So, since everything is so easy to acquire, the economy must be in great shape.

Yes, it is. It's in such great shape that people from all over the world are coming here in large numbers.

I watched a man sentenced in court for a felony conviction for a $1.79 jigsaw blade.

I'm calling you on this one. No where in America is theft of less than $2 a felony. There's more to it than you're telling us. Did he have priors? Did he use a weapon?

I've never heard an argument so full of causal fallacies, logical inconsistencies, stereotyping, and lacking any actual proofs or evidence whatsoever.

Instead of vague, generalized attacks on my logic, your cause would be better served if you would point out specific flaws in my logic.

I've stopped to help people with the "will work for food" signs. I offered to buy them a suit of clothes, give them a shower, and write a resume. I've told them they could use my phone number to find a job. When you actually get to know these people, you soon find out they are deeply flawed. They are usually alcoholics, drug addicts, or mentally ill. Their problem isn't the economy.

If you can't sell your art work, you can blame the economy, which you can do nothing about, or you can blame yourself, which you can do something about.

 

[Scott_1776]

As our baby boomers retire in mass and no one (a whole lot less of us) left to pick up the slack, you're going to see deflation like Japan has experienced over the last twenty years. No amount of govt printing (QE infinity) is going to prop us up. I recommend a good read, the Long Emergency by Howard Kunstler. It may be peachy out there for some, but sooner than later it won't be for anyone, working, retired or living in a van!

 

[GotSmart]

Bruce~~~:s

I personally have seen hungry people in America. Been there~~~. We are everywhere. Those that rely on a 50 cent bag of chips, because a $1 burger is more than you have. Being run out of town because you do not have a wallet full of money, are the wrong color, not dressed right, or are in a old van instead of a expensive foreign car.

People are scared of losing what they have, and having visible poor in a town reminds them of how much "better off" they are than someone else. It is easier to not take pictures of the poor and hungry so they do not feel bad.


When you are able to work enough to pay the rent and transportation, medical and food become secondary. After a short time the pain becomes a dull ache, and you can dismiss it to concentrate on just getting through the day. If you are in a place without work???

As for trapping varments for food. That requires a skill set not taught by society. You must have the resources to find out how to do it. (Not as easy as the books say.) That is how many fed their families during the great depression.

Back to the economy.

I am a people watcher. I see the economy is getting better. More people are willing to repair their house, upgrade to a new house, car, or MH. I feel the economy is starting another growth cycle. I do not have the time to dig up facts and figures to back it up, but in talking to people across the country the general feel is of optimism.

As for one political party being for the people??? I do not see the results from either. The people need to watch out for each other. Works, not words. There are good people in every party. You have to find the person inside the politician. NUF SAID ON THAT.

I just visited one brother in Oregon. He is an epileptic, and has problems ringing the bell for The Salvation Army. They accept him completely, and because of the current political situation, he has a roof over his head and help in his day to day living. That would not be the situation without private organizations to concentrate on just who has a real need, and who is just in it for the free help.

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As our baby boomers retire in mass and no one (a whole lot less of us) left to pick up the slack, you're going to see deflation like Japan has experienced over the last twenty years. No amount of govt printing (QE infinity) is going to prop us up. I recommend a good read, the Long Emergency by Howard Kunstler. It may be peachy out there for some, but sooner than later it won't be for anyone, working, retired or living in a van!

One thing I am noticing about the current retired crop of boomers, we are willing to volunteer at the drop of a hat to help out.

The younger generation is much better than we give them credit for.

 

[HarmonicaBruce]

I recommend a good read, the Long Emergency by Howard Kunstler.

I'm too lazy, but I looked it up on wikipedia. Allow me to quote: "Kunstler's premise is that "cheap, plentiful" oil is the foundation of industrial society and the pervasiveness of its effects is not widely appreciated. Through the 21st century, oil and natural gas will become increasingly difficult to obtain, becoming increasingly expensive and ultimately unavailable".

Looks like he was wrong.

 

[Scott_1776]

FCracking has helped, but that's just one aspect of the slow decline in 'Merica. Sorry but oil will back up before you know it, all about moving that Overton window back and forth. Someday will be wishing for $3.50 a gallon again. As for our youth, they are great, but they're aren't enough to go around. Another google search of William Dent (I think) lays out the demographics of population and issues with that world wide.

 

[gypsychic]

Bruce,

It's an interesting perspective you have and it has made me think. I don't agree with it totally but I like that it has made me push deeper for some of my reasons for where I find myself disagreeing with you. I have learned to be leary of 'discussions' that are really a reiterating of group think ideas. It takes courage to state publicly something that goes against the group think ideas when you are invested in the group. (I don't think you're a troll here in this discussion) I admire your willingness to bring a differing opinion to the table.

That being said, while I can concede some of your points, I don't agree with your conclusions. Let's look at the idea of hunger in America. When Seraphim started this discussion he started with a definition of economics. I think that because we come from various places, starting with a agreed upon definition is key to a discussion.

The problem today is there is no scarcity.

If you don't believe the the underlying foundation of a definition, it's hard to have a productive exchange of ideas.

We've already talked about food. I used to say there the reason I know there is no hunger in American is because there are so many stray dogs.

I do see where you are coming from to a point but in America many people would find it difficult to start eating an animal that is culturally considered a companion animal and not a traditional meat source. To do so would be drastic and a last resort to survival. I believe there is a world of difference between Seraphim's intended definition of hunger and your usage of stray dogs as a reason to state there is no hunger.

In Detroit if you get caught shoplifting less than $10, the police won't come. The store owner has to let the person go (my girl friend used to be a store detective for Kroger grocery).

First off I would question when your girlfriend had this experience. To my knowledge there hasn't been a Kroger inside Detroit city limits for a least the past 10-15 years that I have direct knowledge of and probably much longer than that. I looked up to see if Kroger had expanded back into the Detroit market and from their website a search of Kroger stores shows many just outside of the city limits but none directly inside where a Detroit police office would have jurisdiction. Detroit has long been considered a food desert, meaning that the ability of the average person to access the staple ingredients of an unprepared meal are difficult to obtain by either car, public transportation or walking. Not impossible, but difficult. Detroit actually has a problem with roaming stray dog packs but I don't know too many people who wouldn't find it objectionable or had necessarily the skills to start hunting and trapping those stray dogs.

Also, knowing what I do about Detroit I would imagine the threshold for a Detroit police officer to come out for the average shop lifting offense is far higher than $10, except maybe around the Wayne State area. I wouldn't use Detroit as an example. It is more the exception than the rule. The city is facing a myriad of challenges to an even greater extent than the rest of America. If the whole of America is to follow the lead of Detroit, we are in a sad, sad state and learning those trapping skills would be desirable.

What scarcity does exist is artificial. Laws limit how many houses can be built on a certain size lot, how many stories high apartments can be, where you can put mobile homes. We have more vacant houses in America than we have homeless.

I do believe that scarcity can be produced artificially. The market is easily manipulated. That's why there are laws to limit the ability of companies to manipulate the market. We may have more vacant homes in America than we have homeless but at this time I don't know of any program that is trying to eliminate either problem by somehow pairing the two. Do you? I, for one, would find that to be a program I would want to help move along. If only it were that easy. Can you imagine the outcry if suddenly the homeless were being 'given' vacant homes. How would you feel personally about someone who you don't feel is working at trying to make it was able to obtain a vacant home, while you have to work for the things you have? Would that sit right with you? I think it would help curb both of the issues but I think I am in a minority with regard to feeling it would be ok. Maybe not as I haven't taken a poll.

I sold my trailer in Florida for $3500.

I, personally, would be grateful if I had $3,500 available to put toward a trailer, be it a cargo trailer or a mobile home. I'm not sure which you are referring to. For some that is not as easy as it is for others. We are all in different circumstances. I am glad that as a musician you have had the opportunity to find a successful path that has allowed you to be able to buy a new Sprinter van and pay 10,000+ for dental work and dabble in the commodities market (all from recent posts I've read). I have had a different path, with different opportunities and obstacles, as have many others I would imagine. Even given the same set of talents and opportunities I might have made different choices than you have. That is my prerogative but that doesn't mean that I am not trying. In fact the whole point of me participating in this forum is that I AM trying, within my current circumstances, without asking for anything but others to freely share their experiences and knowledge, to glean some wisdom that I can apply to my own life in order to not just survive but to THRIVE.

The only reason someone isn't making it in America is because they're not trying.

Bruce, I am not trying to pick specifically on you or your ideas. I truly do want to have an actual exchange of ideas. We may each go away from this discussion with our original ideas in tact but maybe we have fleshed them out a little more. Or maybe we walk away from this discussion with a little more understanding of someone who believes differently than we started out at the beginning of the discussion believing. I am trying to keep an open mind. I hope you are as well. I actually have quite a bit more to say but I am pretty tired and need to rest. I'll contribute more later this evening to the thread.

Peace & Love,

GypsyChic

 

[HarmonicaBruce]

...I personally have seen hungry people in America... "

So have I. Just now I drove past McDonalds, and you should have seen the line! All those hungry people! So hungry they're willing to sit in their cars while the line just creeps.

Those that rely on a 50 cent bag of chips, because a $1 burger is more than you have.

I've even heard of people who are so poor that they cook their own food instead of eating in restaurants. Hard to believe.

As for trapping varments for food. That requires a skill set not taught by society. You must have the resources to find out how to do it. (Not as easy as the books say.) That is how many fed their families during the great depression.

Rat trap, handful of peanuts. Squirrel is the most delicious meat I've ever had.

 

[Seraphim]

GypsyChic

Just for reference purposes, the definition I started with is the one taught in every economics course material I've studied. It's not my individual definition.

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interested in hearing more people's thoughts.

 

[gypsychic]

GypsyChic

Just for reference purposes, the definition I started with is the one taught in every economics course material I've studied. It's not my individual definition.

I know, I recognized it immediately. I took basic intro micro and macro economics in college. Love them both so much I considered actually majoring in economics but didn't. I still find it fascinating although now I believe it as much 'art' as science, at least with regard to looking ahead. Hindsight is, as they say, 20/20. I try to keep up a little by reading economic books and listening to discussions on NPR. Sometimes, many times, over my head but I still like to learn.

interested in hearing more people's thoughts.

Me too

 

[cdiggy]

O dear, where to begin.

Who doesn't meet the criteria for food stamps? I tried to get food stamps, I was told I had too much money in my IRA to qualify.....
I've stopped to help people with the "will work for food" signs. I offered to buy them a suit of clothes....

those are your words. you speak with forked tongue.And I smell something fishy. And it ain't fish.

 

[GotSmart]

Restraint is the gift of not responding after the computer has destroyed what you wrote, and are mad enough to get stupid in your one word rebuttal.

Perhaps later I will address hyperbole and obfuscation.

 

[dragonflyinthesky]

Harmonica Bruce wrote "If you can't sell your art work, you can blame the economy, which you can do nothing about, or you can blame yourself, which you can do something about."
I can sell my art work. I depend on people to buy something they want, not need. I depend on people with disposable money to sell more expensive pieces to. Three of the galleries I earned my sales through have closed over the past several years. Two were well established. I accepted the new economy, adapted and redesigned my art for the different economy. There is still a market for usable art, such as greeting cards. It does take me longer to make the same amount of money one painting would have gone for. I'm not sitting still to complain woe is me. I still do what I'm driven to do and I do okay. At one time I did much better than okay but I'm happy to be who I am.

 

[HarmonicaBruce]

... but oil will back up before you know it, all about moving that Overton window back and forth. Someday will be wishing for $3.50 a gallon again.

Maybe, or it might take a long time. Right now, UCO (oil etf) is $12.11. A July, 2015 $13 call goes for $2.55. This means if you buy UCO and sell a '15 $13 call, and UCO doesn't go down anymore, you'll net a 25% return for 6 months. The only way you can lose is if UCO goes down more than 20% from where it is now. Do you think that's going to happen? If it does, how long will it take before it goes back up? I don't have any money to invest, but I'm going to sell something, buy some UCO, sell covered calls, make over 4% / month.

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And I smell something fishy. And it ain't fish.

If you could be more specific in your accusation, I'd be better able to defend myself. I never lie on forums, or in person. I believe that if you have to lie to make your point, well maybe your point is not valid.

 

[cdiggy]

You are a smart fella. You'll figure it out.

 

[HarmonicaBruce]

I can sell my art work.... Three of the galleries I earned my sales through have closed over the past several years.... I accepted the new economy, adapted and redesigned my art for the different economy.

I suspect you do what you do because you enjoy it, not because you concluded that it's a good way to make tons of money. I'll bet you could sell a lot more just by trying harder, but how much fun would that be? A few months ago I started making hats out of beer cases. They were hard to sell, no one wanted to fork over $25 for one, and they were cool as heck. Then I "discovered" I could sell wash boards. A guy asked me how much I'd want for one, and I said I'd let it go for $125, and he said "will you take $120"? You never know.

 

[dragonflyinthesky]

I'm heading out to look for good deals on washboards, thanks for the tip. Yes, I could make more but it wouldn't be fun.