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Oil is $50 / barrel, and UCO is down again, $8.37.  How low can it go?  We know how low stocks can go, just look at Kodak and Radio Shack.  Those stocks are worthless.  We know how low bonds can go, the Chrysler bond holders lost money so Chrysler could keep paying retired UAW workers.  There are more voting retired UAW workers from Chrysler than bond holders, but I digress.  Oil actually is something, something useful that is in limited supply (or so we're told).  So how low can it go?  I've read it could go to $10 / barrel.  So lets assume oil can drop another 80%.  That would put UCO at about $1.70.  Gasoline would be under 50 cents (unless the tax and spend politicians raise the tax on gas, which they will).  If oil did hit $10 / barrel, how long could it stay there? It would seem that it has to come back up eventually.  Kodak stock will never come back, neither will those Chrysler bonds, but oil will come back.  

After bragging about how I'm up 13% this year with UCO, with the recent drop in price I'm only up 2.6%.  

Well, in keeping with my philosophy, I bought more at $8.36.  I don't think UCO can go down much more, and if it does, it won't stay there.  Keep me in your prayers.
 
Bruce --- so you are up 2.6% for the year trading options? That is your bottom line so far? What is you full overall positive amount from investments ? Percentage wise ?

My signal and ETF like buy hold sell is getting me 6.3% so far. And I know others at 18%.
 
Walmart (WMT), was planning to take a dip, no matter what the earning or news were. Some trader don't listen to stupid news and trade only by stock charts. WMT, had a Head and Shoulders Tops, Complex formation.

RESULT SNAPSHOT

Appearance: head and shoulders with multiple heads, shoulders or both.

Failure rate:  8%

Volume Trend: downward

Reversal or Consolidation: Short term
 
gojo said:
Walmart (WMT), was planning to take a dip, no matter what the earning or news were. Some trader don't listen to stupid news and trade only by stock charts. WMT, had a Head and Shoulders Tops, Complex formation.

RESULT SNAPSHOT

Appearance: head and shoulders with multiple heads, shoulders or both.

Failure rate:  8%

Volume Trend: downward

Reversal or Consolidation: Short term
 
offroad said:
... What is you full overall positive amount from investments ?  Percentage wise ?
I'm not doing too well right now.  I had about 30% in FCISX, a dividend paying mutual fund.  I got it at $1.98, got about 6% dividends per year, and sold a few months ago at the high for the year, $2.61.  It's still down from that ($2.47).  I foolishly bought SDRL (they drill oil wells in the ocean) at $16.32 in November, 2014, and it's down to $12.34.  But, I sold 3-20-15 $16 calls for SDRL for .38, so if I can keep doing that, I'll recover.  I was big in oil and oil totally tanked  But that's the beauty of covered calls.  I started buying UCO when it tanked form $40 to $12 in December.  It's at $8.36 now, yet I'm in the black.  People think "options" are risky.  It's riskier NOT to sell options on your securities.  It's mathematically impossible to lose money selling a covered call with a strike price higher than what you paid for the stock.  The risk comes when you buy options.  When you buy a call, it can and often does go to zero.  

I'm a contrarian, as I think you have to be to make money.  Everyone knows Walmart is a great company, so everyone buys it, so it's over-bought and over-priced.  It has little upside.  For it to do well the economy in general has to do well and the company management has to do well.  I don't like stocks in general, too many things can go wrong.  Kodak invented digital photography many years ago, had patents, but their stock went to zero.  When you buy stock in a company you're gambling that the company will make money.  

I don't like bonds, especially now.  They pay pathetically small returns, and the only way they can go up is if interest rates go down.  Interest rates really can't go down because they're virtually zero right now.  If interest rates go up, which is possible and perhaps likely, bonds will go down.  So all that risk for such little return?  No thanks! 

When you buy oil, you're buying oil.  The only "gamble" in buying oil is that it could get cheaper.  Yes it could, but I believe it MUST go back up eventually.  Many things can make oil go up, such as war or the threat of war.  People in India and China are driving cars more than they have in the past.  Oil doesn't have to go up to make money selling covered calls, it just has to not go down a whole lot.
 
Please (please) correct me where I am wrong ~  

imo, Trading Options is NOT at all like buying & selling stocks.   One is paying (or collecting) for the rights to buy (or forced to sell) a stock at a future point in time, at a prearranged price. 

imo, Basically one is leveraging small bits of money in exchange for RISKING larger amounts of money. 

Future Stock Price changes (or no change) dictates if one makes money or loses money.   

Basically, at least a couple people in this thread are running their very own private "Hedge Fund"   As Oil (energy market segment) is quite nervous right now, they are making money on options (because they are making the correct bets), even if their stock is losing value  -- hence the name hedging your bets (hedge fund).   

When one "covers" the options trade, it means you are giving someone else a chance to buy the stocks you own, at a discounted price to their future face value.  In this case one is FORCED to sell the stocks they own (or pay out their losses if they are trading options in that direction) 

What do you think of this site:  http://www.theoptionsguide.com/  for learning more about the vital details of Trading Options?    
I once found a site that not only gave instruction, but also had exams to test one's knowledge, but I don't recall the site's name.  :(    Perhaps it was: http://www.optionsxpress.com/     But I'm not sure.   
 
flailer said:
Please (please) correct me where I am wrong ~  
Ok

flailer said:
imo, Trading Options is NOT at all like buying & selling stocks.   One is paying (or collecting) for the rights to buy (or forced to sell) a stock at a future point in time, at a prearranged price.  
Actually, it can be similar to buying and selling stock.  Perhaps you want to buy AMZN (Amazon), and you know you'll be wanting to sell it before Jan, 2017.  You could buy the stock, or you could buy an option to buy the stock, i.e. a call that expires on Jan 2017.  Suppose you buy a $200 call that expires Jan 2017.  That call is trading at $192 / $197 (bid / ask), and the stock is trading at $383.  Now anytime you want, before the option expiration date, you can buy AMZN for $200.  If you sell the call just before the expiration date, it will trade for the difference in the price of AMZN and $200.  So your results are the same as if you had actually owned the stock.  One difference is dividends, you get no dividends if you hold an option instead of the stock.  Also, you may have noticed that the cost of the call plus the $200 strike is $392, whereas the stock is only $383.  That's the "time value" of the option, because it could go up in value.  So you end up making less money buying the option instead of the stock, but you can't lose as much.  If you bought the stock for $383, you could lose it all.  If you buy the call for $197 (the ask price) then that's all you can lose.

But yes, you're basically correct.

flailer said:
imo, Basically one is leveraging small bits of money in exchange for RISKING larger amounts of money.   
Using options gives you the ability to leverage, just like buying stock on margin.  Of course you can keep some in cash, which I try to do.  

flailer said:
imo, Future Stock Price changes (or no change) dictates if one makes money or loses money.   
You betcha.

flailer said:
Basically, at least a couple people in this thread are running their very own private "Hedge Fund"   As Oil (energy market segment) is quite nervous right now, they are making money on options (because they are making the correct bets), even if their stock is losing value  -- hence the name hedging your bets (hedge fund).   
Yep, that's it.  By George, you've got it.

flailer said:
When one "covers" the options trade, it means you are giving someone else a chance to buy the stocks you own, at a discounted price to their future face value.  In this case one is FORCED to sell the stocks they own (or pay out their losses if they are trading options in that direction)   
Well, ok, there are 2 kinds of "covering" I guess.  I don't know how Warren Buffet's broker treats him, but my broker, Fidelity, has it set up so it is mathematically impossible for me to cause them to lose money.  The only way they'll allow me to sell a call is if I already own the stock, so even if UCO goes to a million dollars a share, Fidelity will just tell me my shares were sold for the strike price.  The calls I sold were "covered" by the stock I owned.  Now, suppose the stock goes down, like my UCO has done so much.  I can't sell my UCO because it's covering a call I sold that hasn't expired yet.  But, the price of the call has gone down because the stock price went down.  Everything else being the same, the price of a call goes down as the expiration date approaches, (if the strike price is out of the money), i.e. higher than the trading price of the stock.  With a couple of weeks left before expiration, I bought back a call I had sold a month earlier.  I sold it for $1.17 less than 7 weeks earlier, and it still had a week and a half to expire, so I bought it back, i.e. I "covered" my call.  I bought it back for .05.  I was then free to write another call and collect another premium.

flailer said:
What do you think of this site:  http://www.theoptionsguide.com/  for learning more about the vital details of Trading Options?   
Yep, that's optionshouse.  I set up a free "practice" account there, and lost lots of virtual money learning options.  I'm glad it was virtual.  Click here for the part about covered calls.  You might want to look at the Chicago Board of Options Exchange.  They're the "casino", the ones who run the whole deal.

I read Charles Schwab's page about options.  It was pretty bad.  They want you to buy and sell a lot, and that's not what you should do to make money.  It's not just the commissions, it's the difference in the "bid" and the "ask" price that kills you.  It's not uncommon to see bid .50, ask $1.20.  Pretty easy to see who's making the money there.    

Don't get bogged down reading about "iron condors",  "diagonal bull call spreads", "covered straddles", that's all nonsense.  It's a way to get you to buy more options.

flailer said:
I once found a site that not only gave instruction, but also had exams to test one's knowledge...  
That's pretty cool.  I'm convinced that the goal of any investment strategy is for you to not feel stupid.  I haven't made any money doing this, but I don't feel stupid because at least I haven't lost any and look at how badly oil crashed!  I'll bet the test is designed to make you feel confident to fund your account!  I'm a cynic, I like to "follow the money".
 
Thanks Bruce!    Two things:

1. Yes, I see how someone can use options to actually buy and hold a stock (at a price lower than what the stock is selling for today).  Which I believe was part of your first point.   But why not just buy the stock when it hits your price-point (buy signal, or whatever you wanna call it).  

2. Why not do a whole lot of buying or selling in options??  After all, the options NEED to be monitored so that they can be exercised at the right time, and before they expire as well.  So, that said, as long as you are "baby-sitting" why not run a entire daycare center??    
Wouldn't a rolling "cheat-sheet" , notes of your trades, complete with timing and strike points, make it the easiest baby-sitting job in the world???  

Sorry if I am using the wrong terminology.  I hope my questions are clear.   
 
Could loose it all on AMZN? If that's at $350 it's not going to drop, unless the whole market has a major issue. Maybe look at a stock that is imaginary and small. Like BILLS OIL WELLS (just made up). Buy and option on that and it could drop to zero. Or oil could go up again if fracking gets regulated out of existence. All depends on the value if the stock, as much as the perceived direction of the market.
 
In other words options are gambling. Will stick to my INDEXED FUNDS strategy for now. Feel like it's less gambling and more using the stock market directions to find the most gain. Based on typical patterns of the year, per your signal tool.
 
offroad said:
In other words options are gambling.  Will stick to my INDEXED FUNDS strategy for now. Feel like it's less gambling and more using the stock market directions to find the most gain. Based on typical patterns of the year, per your signal tool.

Than go with Commodities. Commodities are tangible goods. A stock is just a peace of printed paper that someone will pay you, what they think it's worth. LOL
 
flailer said:
Thanks Bruce!    Two things:

1. Yes, I see how someone can use options to actually buy and hold a stock (at a price lower than what the stock is selling for today).  Which I believe was part of your first point.   But why not just buy the stock when it hits your price-point (buy signal, or whatever you wanna call it).  

2. Why not do a whole lot of buying or selling in options??  After all, the options NEED to be monitored so that they can be exercised at the right time, and before they expire as well.  So, that said, as long as you are "baby-sitting" why not run a entire daycare center??    
Wouldn't a rolling "cheat-sheet" , notes of your trades, complete with timing and strike points, make it the easiest baby-sitting job in the world???  

Sorry if I am using the wrong terminology.  I hope my questions are clear.   

Sorry I took so long to reply, I hadn't been watching this thread.

The reason not to do a lot of buying and selling is the same reason not to day - trade, that's how you lose money.  It's not the broker commissions that eat you up it's the difference in the bid and ask price.  Basically, you pay the ask price when you buy, and you get the bid price when you sell.

I ask myself how is it possible to make money like this, where is the money coming from.  I think it's coming from gamblers, who are betting on a big movement in the stock in a short time.

Calling options trading "gambling" is like calling lottery tickets gambling.  If you buy lottery tickets, you're gambling, and you'll almost always lose.  If you sell lottery tickets (like the owner of a party store does), that's not gambling.  He makes money no matter what numbers are drawn.  If he sells a winning ticket to someone he might get a bonus, but he still makes money when he sells losing tickets.

In the 72 days since I started trading UCO and it's options, it's gone from over $12 to under $7.  My average cost is $9.34, and it's currently at $8.50.  And yet I'm up 2.77%.  Even though the stock is down big, I've made enough in premiums to more than cover my losses.  If it goes up I'll make much more.

Life is good!  If anyone can explain how it's possible to lose money like this, I'd like to hear it.  Part of me thinks it shouldn't be this easy, there must be a catch somewhere.
 
Bruce,  check out this image of our Marketplaces (yes, more than one)  

Can you see you (and I) are operating at the fat end (the top) of the "Liquidity Pyramid" ?    We are as far from Gold & "real currency" as possible.

Yes?  No?  Maybe?  

Liquidity-Pyramid-Gold.png


http://www.sovereignman.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/LiquidityPyramid.pdf

or google search: "Image Liquidity Pyramid"


blah. the image doesn't wanna post.  I'll see if I can upload it or some other work around......   jeopardy song playing ..... 
 
Just an update on my UCO options.

I started buying UCO at $12, it's at about $7 now.  I'm just about even now, as every time I sell a call I get close to a dollar.  There have been big price swings regularly, like 8% or so (it's up 8.69% today).  I tried to sell some July $10 calls for .60 today, but my order didn't execute.  My average cost for UCO is $9.25, not factoring in what I've made from the calls, so I won't care if a call gets exercised at $10.

I think oil, and UCO, will stay down for quite some time, assuming no "black swan" event.  So, I may be able to just keep on doing this.

Good luck to all the traders out there!  
 
flailer said:
Liquidity Pyramid...
Wow, there is more than twice as much money in derivatives as there is in all other assets combined.

But where are bitcoins?

(Sorry for taking so long to reply, I didn't notice your post).
 
Another update:
I sold some July $10 calls (UCO), got .64 / share.  UCO is at $8.40, but I think it will go back down.  I still can't figure out why the premiums are so high for UCO calls.  I only started in December, but I've already recovered 16% of my costs by selling calls (I keep detailed spreadsheets).  It seems that people think oil will bounce back, and if it does I'll be very happy (for my portfolio).  But I don't think it will.
 
I traded with Ameritrade back in the 90s and traded with Scottrade for the past 10+ years. I like Brokers that has Bank accounts. Been thinking about changing Brokers, because Scottrade charges to much commission, with Stock Options. When trading Weekly Options, every penny counts, especially when you buy 100+ contracts. I been using this site to compare; http://www.stockbrokers.com/ . If anybody knows of more sites or experience with a Broker (good or bad) appreciate you sharing.
Merrill Edge is on the top of my list at present, could change any moment. :rolleyes:
 
I keep looking at sell-buy-sell as the real cost to make money on a trade. So that cost could be $60. You better make over $100 from your guess, else why bother. Find the quotes from other companies like EDWARD JONES saying they cost $50 per trade to be stupidly costly.
 
About all I trade is stock options, because of leverage and limited losses. Lets look at  AAPL stock. It opened at 125.94, its 126 CALL Option opened at .42. Say you put a limit order to buy at opening price @.42. Now it did go all the way down to .25. Just say I bot it at .42.
It did make it up to 1.25 today, but I sold it at 1.05, at 2:37PM Central, little less than 30 minutes before the market closes.

OK, I bot 10 contracts at .42. There is a 100 to each contract, the price would be $42.00.

$42.00 X 10 = $420.00 + $7.00 commission + $1.25 per contract.
Add all these up and the cost would be $439.50.

At 2:37 PM Central, decided to sell at market order and got $1.05  X 100 = $105.00 per contract.
 
105.00 X 10 = 1050.00 - $7.00 commission - $1.25 per contract.
Subtract all these up and the cost would be $1030.50.

A profit of $591.00

I did this fairly quick, there could be some mistakes.....

Commission for each trade were $19.50
Total of $39.00  

I'm looking to pay at least .75 per contract, then the cost for 10 contracts would be $7.50, which I now pay $12.50. Every penny helps.

Guess I'm getting tight with my money like my grandfather. I was told that he was so tight, that he squeaked when he walked.
 
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