How soon will electric or hybrid vans/RVs be common?

[Gr8ful]

The only constant in life is Change!

 

[bullfrog !]

^^^That is true but there are cycles if you look at history. Automobiles replaced horses partly because of their emissions in big urban areas and there was a lot of resistance for a lot of good reasons although bicycles were available and could have been developed. Trains improved over the years but the improved ones lately have been impeded by lack of improved infrastructure which has been allowed to deteriorate. Ride an AmTrac train through Indiana and Illinois you will see, hear and feel what I mean.

 

[RonDean]

Maybe we are closer than I realized.
https://electrek.co/2022/10/05/how-much-does-the-chevy-silverado-ev-really-cost/
Chevy says its Silverado EV is still “packed with the power and capability expected of Chevy Trucks” but with zero emissions. The electric pickup truck will offer:

• Up to 10,000 lbs max towing
• Up to 10.2kW onboard power
• GM estimated 400 miles range on a full charge
• Up to 664 HP with more than 780 lb-ft of torque enables 0-60 mph in less than 4.5 seconds (in available max power Wide Open Watts Mode).

All models will come with tow/haul mode, trailer hitch components, and trailer brake controller. In addition, they will feature DC fast charging (up to 350kW) capabilities, which GM estimates can add about 100 miles of range in 10 minutes.

---

All for $39,900 + (1,695 DFC) = $41,595! That's getting a lot closer to affordable truck that can carry or tow something livable.

 

[Gr8ful]

I still the charger should be on the vehicle & have 120v cord for slow charge 240v for fast charge.

 

[Gr8ful]

Maybe we are closer than I realized.
https://electrek.co/2022/10/05/how-much-does-the-chevy-silverado-ev-really-cost/
Chevy says its Silverado EV is still “packed with the power and capability expected of Chevy Trucks” but with zero emissions. The electric pickup truck will offer:

• Up to 10,000 lbs max towing
• Up to 10.2kW onboard power
• GM estimated 400 miles range on a full charge
• Up to 664 HP with more than 780 lb-ft of torque enables 0-60 mph in less than 4.5 seconds (in available max power Wide Open Watts Mode).

All models will come with tow/haul mode, trailer hitch components, and trailer brake controller. In addition, they will feature DC fast charging (up to 350kW) capabilities, which GM estimates can add about 100 miles of range in 10 minutes.

---

All for $39,900 + (1,695 DFC) = $41,595! That's getting a lot closer to affordable truck that can carry or tow something livable.

Your specs are grom the $100k 1st model, here's specs for this $40k model

MSRP	Towing capacity	Payload	HP	Torque (ft-lbs)
Chevy Silverado EV WT	$39,900 + (1,695 DFC) = $41,595	8,000	1,200	510	615

 

[rruff]

Regarding hydrogen vehicles, there's money there. They'll figure out the storage and transport issues.

Storage and transport are by no means trivial with hydrogen... and there is really no way to "figure it out". Cryogenic temperatures and extreme pressure are costly, period. Both take a lot of energy and resources. Steel embrittlement, leaks, and danger of fire and explosion are other unique issues (compared to other options). Transportation by pipeline is also expensive.

Even if we can extract it for "free" from underground, I don't think it will be a viable for personal transportation.

 

[WestoftheSunset]

I think there is going to have to be a lot more research and development done, especially into the spontaneous combustion problem with EV batteries. The Australian Maritime Safety Authority has issued an alert concerning EV's being transported on ferries:

https://www.amsa.gov.au/vessels-ope...safety-alert-022023-risks-associated-carriage
I believe that in some jurisdictions, EV batteries are considered to be dangerous goods and in my country, at least, two states have made it illegal to transport dangerous goods through vehicular traffic tunnels and one advises caution. The same sort of thinking can't be far away with respect to underground and high-rise car parks.

 

[Happy Camper]

The EV Silverado has been pushed back a year due to slowing EV demand.

 

[rruff]

I think there is going to have to be a lot more research and development done, especially into the spontaneous combustion problem with EV batteries. The Australian Maritime Safety Authority has issued an alert concerning EV's being transported on ferries:

https://www.amsa.gov.au/vessels-ope...safety-alert-022023-risks-associated-carriage
I believe that in some jurisdictions, EV batteries are considered to be dangerous goods and in my country, at least, two states have made it illegal to transport dangerous goods through vehicular traffic tunnels and one advises caution. The same sort of thinking can't be far away with respect to underground and high-rise car parks.

https://www.autoweek.com/news/a38225037/how-much-you-should-worry-about-ev-fires/"A better way of looking at electric vehicle fires is to compare the number of fires per 100,000 vehicles sold. Researchers from insurance deal site Auto Insurance EZ compiled sales and accident data from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics and the National Transportation Safety Board. The site found that hybrid vehicles had the most fires per 100,000 sales at 3474.5. There were 1529.9 fires per 100k for gas vehicles and just 25.1 fires per 100k sales for electric vehicles."

 

[Happy Camper]

A better way to look at electric vehicle fires is that they can sink a ferry. It didn't matter that it happens less often. When it happens it's very bad in certain situations.

I get what the statistics say the likelihood of an EV fire is. That doesn't take into account the severity of those fires when they can't be handled in a normal way. Considering EV battery fires killed a container ship, I think a ferry wouldn't stand a chance in most cases.

And I'm not an EV hater. But statistics are only good when used in proper context.

 

[Gr8ful]

Look at the recent fire at Luton airport parking garage in London. Started by a diesel but took down a concrete & steel parking garage & 1500 cars after spreading to EVs/

 

[Happy Camper]

Look at the recent fire at Luton airport parking garage in London. Started by a diesel but took down a concrete & steel parking garage & 1500 cars after spreading to EVs/

I hadn't heard about that one. Here's an article regarding shipping EV and possibly upgrades they'll have to make to the ships.

https://www.ft.com/content/e3e72d21-3292-4b0c-b498-66ea15ae95d8

 

[rruff]

....after spreading to EVs

Curious where you got that bit. Didn't see it in any news reports... and I kinda think vehicles with a lot of flammible liquids are going to do a better job of spreading a fire.

 

[rruff]

A better way to look at electric vehicle fires is that they can sink a ferry. It didn't matter that it happens less often. When it happens it's very bad in certain situations.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...-cars-moored-not-sunk-fact-check/70561224007/

 

[Gr8ful]

Curious where you got that bit. Didn't see it in any news reports... and I kinda think vehicles with a lot of flammible liquids are going to do a better job of spreading a fire.

Here's the 1st thing that I pulled up tonight. When it happened the news said it was thought to be EVs that caused the massive damage.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-67313813

 

[Happy Camper]

We can go on an EV battery fire pissing contest posting articles for a week. The fact is that they burn differently than other fires. So they need to be treated differently depending on circumstances.

I don't get why every time someone brings up EV fires there's always someone defending EVs like someone is attacking EV vehicles as a whole.

If you fart outside in the wind, it's a different circumstance than farting in a packed elevator. Don't complicate it.

 

[eDJ_]

Found this from almost 55 years ago. Understand it is based on technology of that era. GM had an idea for a EV that generated it's own electric. (yes, it still used "some" fuel to do it like most hybrids)
It had it's limits as it was using a Sterling cycle engine. In time, perhaps a body covered with photovoltaic materials would yield a "poly-hybrid". Solar for sunny daylight conditions and fuel for otherwise. But solar may not be enough heat generation for a Sterling cycle engine.



The biggest issue was the weight it added to the platform and the nature of the Sterling cycle engine itself, as it tended to run at a constant speed resisting throttle response. Somewhat similar to a Diesel with it's narrower power band than a gasoline engine. But it could run on about any fuel that would generate heat.

Who knows what Engineers provided with newer materials & technologies could bring about in the future. It may just be a revision of some long forgotten idea like the 1800's Sterling Engine.
Perhaps a poly-hybrid that uses a photovoltaic covering on the body of the vehicle for sun lit traveling environment and fuel for other driving environments.

Steam power was all but given up on until Bill Lear (father of the Lear Jet) completely revised the use of steam power in 1969. He believed in the use of steam power if transformed with newer technology. He considered the limits of water and developed a new chemical liquid substitute he called "Learium" to use in his new flash steam generating system. (using less fuel, heat, and time to build operating pressure) He powered everything from a mini-bike to a city bus as proof of concept with his new Vapordyne engine. Even built a racing car with it. Had he lived beyond 1978 his industry may have produced something better than what GM was considering with the Sterling Cycle engine in the drawing above. A photovoltaic body & a small onboard Vapordyne/electric generator system together may be a better solution to what GM was proposing with the Sterling.

Some may say, "Well, we'll never know will we". But those aren't the visionaries or inventors.

 

[rruff]

Here's the 1st thing that I pulled up tonight. When it happened the news said it was thought to be EVs that caused the massive damage.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-67313813

I didn't see anything about EVs in that link. All the sites where EVs were mentioned had zero evidence... they were just hoping it could be pinned on EVs because they don't like them.

Maybe it will turn out to be the case. I don't know much about vehicle fires.

 

[rruff]

It had it's limits as it was using a Sterling cycle engine. In time, perhaps a body covered with photovoltaic materials would yield a "poly-hybrid". Solar for sunny daylight conditions and fuel for otherwise. But solar may not be enough heat generation for a Sterling cycle engine.

The biggest issue was the weight it added to the platform and the nature of the Sterling cycle engine itself, as it tended to run at a constant speed resisting throttle response. Somewhat similar to a Diesel with it's narrower power band than a gasoline engine. But it could run on about any fuel that would generate heat.

Who knows what Engineers provided with newer materials & technologies could bring about in the future.
Some may say, "Well, we'll never know will we". But those aren't the visionaries or inventors.

Series hybrids were considered early on because they are simple, but they tend to be heavy and inefficient.

Hybrids are interesting, and are viable for urban situations where the regenerative braking can yield substantial gains. But I look at them as a way to make ICEs a little more efficient, with the "cost" of added complexity... and fire danger! There are other ways we can make ICEs more efficient though, by reducing weight and improving aerodynamics. >100 mpg is easy to achieve these days. But instead we promote 6,000 lb personal vehicles that are shaped like a brick, because that is what people "want".

Here is a summary of an old project by VW to make a viable efficient car. Their first iteration was diesel powered and got 240 mpg. They eventually changed to a diesel plug in hybrid that was able to get 260 mpge. That was 10 years ago. I'm sure they could make a much better car now. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_1-litre_car

In reality, people aren't willing to accept the compromises inherent in something that efficient. Even at 40 mpg the cost of fuel is a small % of the cost of owning and using a car, and for the owner it doesn't make sense to push for more. And it also isn't safe to drive lightweight vehicles when the roads are dominated by 6,000 lb behemoths. That problem is solvable, but there is little will to do it and a lot of opposition.

Electric vehicles are inherently simple and efficient, and the batteries, motors, charging, and software systems are adequate to make them viable right now for personal transportation. The important problems have been solved... but they are still in their infancy. Kinda like ICEs over 100 years ago. They are only going to get better.

Adding solar cells to a car makes little sense unless it is very light and aero. There just isn't much energy to harvest... not enough to make a significant difference on a typical car. Same for pedals. The amount of power the average human might be comfortable adding long term is maybe 50W... and that is assuming good ventilation and cooling to prevent excessive sweating. Even a very light electric car... that looks like an enclosed bicycle and weighs ~250 lbs... can exceed that by >10x for hours, making the human input pointless.

If you are looking for an inventor and visionary, look to Elon Musk. He has been getting endless crap from the "status quo" since the beginning, yet he keeps inventing and innovating and making commercially viable new tech. Teslas are the most technically advanced cars and show no signs of giving up that lead. SpaceX makes the cheapest and best launch rockets, and Starlink is the cheapest and best satellite internet. It's quite clear that established companies are unwilling to make this sort of investment, even though they have far more resources. Rather, they prefer to keep milking the same cows and playing it safe.

 

[Happy Camper]

StarLink is definitely not the cheapest and fastest Internet service.

Space X has definitely made legacy rocket companies feel the pain though.