covid information

[WanderingRose]

I believe the best guess re this virus is that it came from bats.

 

[badmotorscooter]

I had the shots, but not the vaccine. Don't tell me the vet vaccinated both you and your pet?
-crofter

When I took my dog to the vet to get a rabies vaccination, she was apprehensive and wanted an explanation.
Then she wanted to know why I wasn't getting one since it was such a great idea?

She got me on that one, so had to talk the vet into vaccinating me first...

 

[MrAlvinDude]

So the question remains, if the government (or the people) deems this so serious that there is a need for a radical lockdown, why not a similar action (reaction) for the influenza we see all the time?

why don't we lockdown for influenza?  Why is it accepted as no big deal and Covid19 is huge?

I am a little late to this particular conversation, but I would like to comment....

What has been different between the yearly influenza and covid-19?

Well, some cities have had a very different experience with covid-19 and the regular influenza.

In particular some cities in the north of Italy, some cities in Spain, and then New York.

The regular influenza does NOT cause similar hospital crises.  This covid-19 thing made everything different for the hospitals in those cities, in ways that they had simply NOT seen before.
So each of those cities had to learn the same lessons.

And it would seem that some cities in France, and some more cities the US, also needed to learn and see for themselves, that in some ways this covid-19 is indeed very different than the yearly influenza.


Fortunately, so far,  none of the worst case (country wide) predictions have manifested themselves, because it has turned out that a few simple measures, have been able to slow down the spread considerable.

And in the cities that have been hit hard, those same measures also work, and within a few weeks, have slowed down the spread considerably.

So right now, with the measures in place, it would seem that the speed of spread is more manageable and more controllable.



It seems that the speed/rate of spread is technically expressed as R₀  (r-naught)
Where R₀ = 1 means that one person spreads the illness to one other person. 

So if R₀ < 1 then the spread will die out, eventually.  Because one person will only spread the illness to less than one more person. Or rather, not everyone who gets ill, will cause another person to become ill.

If R₀  = 1 then it will continue until everyone has been ill. But it will take some time.

If R₀ > 1 then one person will cause more than just one other to become ill as well.


In Germany the 'president' Angela Merkel, who herself has a Ph.D in biology, has explained that that if Germany’s R₀ were to shift from a flat rate of 1.0 to 1.1, the nation’s hospitals would be crushed by October. If the R₀ goes up to 1.2, that overload hits in July.

And it should be noted that in Europe, Germany has the most “wiggle room” in their health care system, compared to the rest of Europe.
And it should also be noted that the US has less '[font=Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif]wiggle [/font] room', than they do in Germany.

https://www.vox.com/2020/4/17/21225916/coronavirus-in-germany-angela-merkel-lifting-lockdown



Now, in Italy,  early on in the outbreak, they experienced a R₀ between 1.4 and 3.58 depending on the city.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590053620300410

In Wuhan there are indicators that R₀ could have been as high as 5.7 early on in the outbreak.
https://qz.com/1834700/rt-the-real-time-r0-guiding-how-to-lift-coronavirus-lockdowns/


In France, it is estimated that the lock-downs have changed  R₀ from 3.3 to 0.5



But in reality one needs to observe R₀ at every city, region or epicenter.

So I wonder what R₀ is for your location (city, state, country)?


It would seem that R₀ for the Seasonal flu hovers around 1.3.
But people do not get as sick from the flue, as they do from covid-19, so a R₀ at  1.3 for the flue, will not overhelme the health care system.

https://www.theatlantic.com/science...t-and-far-will-new-coronavirus-spread/605632/



So all in all, I would say, that even the subtle differences between the flue, influenza and covid-19, are such, that they clearly have had a significantly different level of impact on humanity. 




And I think it will be very interesting to eventually see, what we can get away with, in terms of as few simple preventive measures as possible, in order to keep this new virus at bay.
And it will be interesting to see if these preventive measures will need to be widespread or even permanent implementations, in adjusted behavior, in order for us to get back to something that resembles every day living. 
It will also be interesting to see if the preventive measures will need to be different inside cities and outside cities. 

But if the 'wiggle room' is between 1.0 and 1.15, and the 'natural range' is 1.5 to 4.0, then I have no doubt that it will take a few months, before we have discovered, learned  and fully implemented the necessary changes of how we humans interact and socially behave in different settings.


So far my prediction is; that just as 'The Matrix' changed what was possible and common place in filmatic traditions, similarly this new virus will change some traditions in 'life as we know it'.



So yeah, I do think there are some 'subtle' differences between 'the flue' and this new virus.

 

[Qxxx]

Where did covid 19 come from?
Here is an article on how virus hunters find viruses and catalogue them in a public database.   -crofter

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/26/health/virus-hunters-bat-cave-coronavirus-hnk-intl/index.html

That's a very good article crofter. Here is a follow up link, seen from the perspective of a Chinese virologist. 

https://www.scientificamerican.com/...wn-viruses-from-sars-to-the-new-coronavirus1/

[font=Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif]A lot of people will discount it, as a lot of people are playing the blame game on China because this thing is so out of control in the U.S., thinking they are in perfect control of everything, rather than trying to dea[/font][font=Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif]l [/font][font=Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif]with things as they happen[/font][font=Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif]. If nothing[/font][font=Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif] else,[/font][font=Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif] the virologist guy in the U.S. indicates corona almost certainly comes from bats. [/font]As the bats live in caves in the south of China, an open question is, how did the epidemic get to Wuhan? Without going into detail, there are multiple ways this could have happened, not just a diabolical action on the part of the Chinese.

 

[WanderingRose]

I believe that bats were one of the live animals being sold in the wet market in Wuhan, where the virus jumped from the bats to humans and then began this pandemic.

People eat bats, along with all manner of animals we would not ordinarily turn to for food, and in the wet market they were all for sale.

 

[Spaceman Spiff]

[font=Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif]A lot of people will discount it, as a lot of people are playing the blame game on China because this thing is so out of control in the U.S.[/font]

In March, the death toll from COVID-19 accounted for 2% of the total deaths in the US.  I wouldn't call that 'out of control'.  April data is incomplete.  The 186 bed hospital near me has 6 patients, 2 in ICU.  80% of their medical staff laid off.  Hear similar reports from the other hospitals in the MSP metro.

https://mises.org/wire/march-us-deaths-covid-19-totaled-less-2-percent-all-deaths

 

[Qxxx]

Out of control in the U.S. goes far beyond covid. Tip of the iceberg. MSP meaning, Minneapolis St Paul? Great, I'm on my way there now. Being here in Dodge, aka River City, aka Ground Zero+1,  is not so pretty.

 

[Cammalu]

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map

Updated all the time. You can see stats by county

 

[1shemp]

I'm safe.I'm mainlining Lysol and have a flashlight in every orifice.

 

[jacqueg]

I'm safe.I'm mainlining Lysol and have a flashlight in every orifice.

Sounds like you're not doing much hiking these days...

 

[badmotorscooter]

I'm safe.I'm mainlining Lysol and have a flashlight in every orifice.

You must be very enlightened!

 

[maki2]

I am ingesting at least 2 cups of coffee everyday. It is the cure for what ails me.

 

[Spaceman Spiff]

Out of control in the U.S. goes far beyond covid. Tip of the iceberg. MSP meaning, Minneapolis St Paul?

And what iceberg would COVID-19 be the tip of?

MSP = Minneapolis/St. Paul

At least here the lockdown is mostly rational:  I can drive around, go for walks with my dog in the parks, talk to neighbors, meet with friends.  Other than travel I am doing normal stuff.

 

[flying kurbmaster]

:  I can drive around, go for walks with my dog in the parks, talk to neighbors, meet with friends.  Other than travel I am doing normal stuff.

You may as well travel because that is not a lockdown, you are missing the point, I am sure you are not the only one, the idea is to limit your interaction with others, if you are meeting with friends and they ar meeting with friends and those friends are meeting with friends and you feel that is cool then there is no lockdown, that is why  America is in trouble and in for a long ride.

 

[Spaceman Spiff]

You may as well travel because that is not a lockdown, you are missing the point, I am sure you are not the only one, the idea is to limit your interaction with others, if you are meeting with friends and they ar meeting with friends and those friends are meeting with friends and you feel that is cool then there is no lockdown, that is why  America is in trouble and in for a long ride.

I am keeping within the parameters set down by my state government.
 -- I drive around - alone with my dog, isolated from other walkers, bikers, and drivers.
 -- I go for walks with my dog - at least a leash length away from anyone, I usually don't see anyone.
 -- I talk with neighbors - we practice social distancing, virus' are not transmitted by sound waves.
 -- I meet with friends - again 6' rule and proper hygiene.

Yes, America is in trouble but not because people are cowering in their homes.  We are in trouble because we have wrecked our economy.  It will take years to recover, and some people won't.  And there will be many more deaths from the wrecked economy.

 

[flying kurbmaster]

If you drive around or go to the park you are touching things like gas pumps, toilets, railings in parks, etc... you are also asking people to come out of their bubbles should you break down or have an accident. I don,t stay at home because I am afraid I do it out of respect for others and I beleive that if everyone complies that this will be over sooner and the economy will be better because of it. What stops you from walking your dog from home or talking to your friends on the phone or from your computer. Who cares about the economy, that will recover on its own it will be much harder to bring mum back from the dead. If businesses can’t survive few months then perhaps they were poorly managed and if people can,t survive a few months they have also been managing poorly and should learn from this, maybe they bought too many guns or too many burgers.

 

[Dingfelder]

Must be nice.

That's pretty cold-hearted toward people who need to work for a living. Which is, of course, most people.

Those who want to keep the shelter-at-home, lockdowns, quarantines going are divided clearly by class, age, and socioeconomic status. It's easy to say that we are all in this together, but if we ever were, it was about three quarters of a century ago, in WWII. We are not all in this together, and much of the country has been celebrating this for a long time. Be they of the Maggie Thatcherite "There is no such thing as society. There are only individuals pursuing their own self-interest," (paraphrase, sorry), or the Reagan era, someone she admired devoutly.

It took very little for the country to start falling apart, which shows how tenuously we were all connected to each other in the first place. It's why old friends recoil from me because I work at a grocery store, but they still want their groceries and from the look of them, they have't missed many meals in their lives.

 

[rvwandering]

I'm closing this thread. It's served a purpose but its become a rehashing of opinions. Accurate coronavirus information can be found from other sources.