SternWake
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Hurricane JOAQUIN
Well if you have internet you know about this storm.
I think the main point of bringing up a thread about it is that the weather models have performed so incredibly badly with tropical systems this year.
Despite where the eye of this storm makes landfall, if it even does, the effects can be widespread.
The Altlantic has been having lots of Onshore winds for a long time now, which pile up water and make raise sea levels slightly.
There is also moderate to strong easterly winds out well out into the Atlantic that cover a rather large area, and this is unusual. Even if this hurricane were not spinning off the coast there would be a fairly good run of groundswell running across most of the whole east coast. When A storm moves over a travelling groudswell, and an Already excited sea state, its ability to form waves is given a jump start and the waves formed will be larger with a bigger period and even more energy.
So combine the week of onshores, a large easterly fetch stretching out into the Sargasso Sea forming longer period groundswell, an already excited sea state. and then throw a Cat3 hurricane on top of it, Coastal flooding could be more extreme than forecast.
When Hurricane Sandy was doing its thing a day or two out from smearing NJ and NY, I thought then that they were not taking into account the large long period groundswell which would be running underneath the storm waves. Usually East coast storms are moving away from the coast, and not directly at it.
The longer the period of the ground swell, the more power the swell has. It is moving faster, it feels the ocean bottom sooner and it jacks up higher when the water depth decreases more rapidly.
Here on the west coast, an 11 second swell at 3' will have wave face heights at about 3 feet. A 20 second swell at 3 feet will have wave face heights of at least 7 feet, and some places can magnify this energy and be twice that size. usually east coast swells have shorter periods as the storms that generate the waves are much closer. 6 to 9 second period is common. There will likely be 14 to 15 second swell running under whatever Joaquim kicks up and 14 to 15 second swell is uncommon on the East coast.
So My point is, move away from any areas prone to coastal flooding, because unless Joachim takes a right turn, which appears less and less likely, anywhere from the SC/NC border Northward, is going to have a lot of ground swell / windswell energy piling up the water along the shorelines and backing up the back bays higher and higher with each tide. With the Storm closing in on any specific location this will be even worse.
I do not think the weather services are accounting for the existing groundswell or the rather large fetch of wind already present, generating ground swell, or the fact that the water has already been piling up from days on end of onshore winds and waves. Joachim itself can certainly cause coastal flooding, but there is already other factors in place which will magnify [img=20x20]http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics/HU.gif[/img][font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Hurricane JOAQUIN[/font]'s ability to raise sea levels.
Then of course there is the rain and the already saturated soil from the significant recent rains.
Keep in mind driving through salt water is almost a death sentence for a vehicle's mechanicals, and Any people searching for vans/ vehicles after this event need to be more cautious that they are not flooded vehicles or vehicles whose owners who thought it would be fun to drive through 6 inches of ocean water, then heard their wheel bearings whirring.
Those in the Northeast should be Aligning their ducks, and finding somewhere safe to ride it out.
Well if you have internet you know about this storm.
I think the main point of bringing up a thread about it is that the weather models have performed so incredibly badly with tropical systems this year.
Despite where the eye of this storm makes landfall, if it even does, the effects can be widespread.
The Altlantic has been having lots of Onshore winds for a long time now, which pile up water and make raise sea levels slightly.
There is also moderate to strong easterly winds out well out into the Atlantic that cover a rather large area, and this is unusual. Even if this hurricane were not spinning off the coast there would be a fairly good run of groundswell running across most of the whole east coast. When A storm moves over a travelling groudswell, and an Already excited sea state, its ability to form waves is given a jump start and the waves formed will be larger with a bigger period and even more energy.
So combine the week of onshores, a large easterly fetch stretching out into the Sargasso Sea forming longer period groundswell, an already excited sea state. and then throw a Cat3 hurricane on top of it, Coastal flooding could be more extreme than forecast.
When Hurricane Sandy was doing its thing a day or two out from smearing NJ and NY, I thought then that they were not taking into account the large long period groundswell which would be running underneath the storm waves. Usually East coast storms are moving away from the coast, and not directly at it.
The longer the period of the ground swell, the more power the swell has. It is moving faster, it feels the ocean bottom sooner and it jacks up higher when the water depth decreases more rapidly.
Here on the west coast, an 11 second swell at 3' will have wave face heights at about 3 feet. A 20 second swell at 3 feet will have wave face heights of at least 7 feet, and some places can magnify this energy and be twice that size. usually east coast swells have shorter periods as the storms that generate the waves are much closer. 6 to 9 second period is common. There will likely be 14 to 15 second swell running under whatever Joaquim kicks up and 14 to 15 second swell is uncommon on the East coast.
So My point is, move away from any areas prone to coastal flooding, because unless Joachim takes a right turn, which appears less and less likely, anywhere from the SC/NC border Northward, is going to have a lot of ground swell / windswell energy piling up the water along the shorelines and backing up the back bays higher and higher with each tide. With the Storm closing in on any specific location this will be even worse.
I do not think the weather services are accounting for the existing groundswell or the rather large fetch of wind already present, generating ground swell, or the fact that the water has already been piling up from days on end of onshore winds and waves. Joachim itself can certainly cause coastal flooding, but there is already other factors in place which will magnify [img=20x20]http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics/HU.gif[/img][font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Hurricane JOAQUIN[/font]'s ability to raise sea levels.
Then of course there is the rain and the already saturated soil from the significant recent rains.
Keep in mind driving through salt water is almost a death sentence for a vehicle's mechanicals, and Any people searching for vans/ vehicles after this event need to be more cautious that they are not flooded vehicles or vehicles whose owners who thought it would be fun to drive through 6 inches of ocean water, then heard their wheel bearings whirring.
Those in the Northeast should be Aligning their ducks, and finding somewhere safe to ride it out.
