Hurricane Matthew. East coast possibility

[SternWake]

It appears evacuation routes in SE Florida are bumper to bumper.

The Hurricane Hunters just found concentric eyewalls with a diameter of 75 and 12 miles. Radar data also confirms that Matthew is likely going through an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC), where the inner eyewall will collapse and be replaced by a giant outer eyewall with a diameter of 75 miles. If the inner eyewall collapses before Matthew hits Florida, the top winds at landfall might be only Category 2 strength. The down side of an ERC is that it will spread hurricane-force winds out over a larger area, increasing the storm surge. Another issue with a large radius outer eyewall is the potential for prolonged exposure to high winds on the western edge, as the storm moves northward along the coast.

I think Matthew has very little chance of increasing its winds beyond the current advisory intensity of 140 mph.

An experimental version of the SHIPS model run at 2 pm EDT predicts predicts max winds of 111, 105, 102, and 101 kts at 6, 12, 18, and 24 hrs if ERC-weakening begins now. Without the ERC, SHIPS (with inland decay if the storm hits land) predicts 121, 119, 117, and 114 kts

From jeff masters wunderblog:

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3468

 

[gcal]

Watching the Weathr Channel. They need to stop making such a fuss over worst case scenerios. Sure, mention it, but when something less happens, people don't believe the storm warnings next time and ignore them.

 

[djkeev]

Forecasters would be ill advised to not warn within the cone of travel.

To not warn and people have people die would be irresponsible.

It Is far better to warn so that people prepare even if the preparation proves unneeded.

I get what you are saying but Hurricane Sandy in NJ was just such a storm.

Much was lost in that storm and has yet to be recovered.

Dave

 

[BradKW]

Too bad nobody thought to evacuate to Key West...lots of empty hotel rooms and supermarket shelves still stocked

 

[Optimistic Paranoid]

Too bad nobody thought to evacuate to Key West...lots of empty hotel rooms and supermarket shelves still stocked  

I've never been to the keys.  The average height above sea level is what, about 3 feet?  Sounds like just the place to be when a storm surge is 10 feet or so above normal.

 

[BradKW]

Certainly not ideal place if the storm were to hit, but it passed us by...so far haven't even gotten any rain. Like most hurricanes, hotels fill up and stores empty out...just unusual that KW is the one clear spot in southern FL this time.

 

[Queen]

Too bad nobody thought to evacuate to Key West...lots of empty hotel rooms and supermarket shelves still stocked  

Spent a week there after Ivan, there was NO ONE there. We got food and drink specials all week like $20 dinner for two including apps/entre/dessert/bottle of wine.

 

[SternWake]

The models beyond 3 days have this storm hooking back and recurving back into South florida in 5 days.

Not saying that is gonna happen, and if it does it will likely be a much weakened storm not requiring an Evacuation of the keys even if it proved accurate

But, they don't really know, neither do I, nor you.

There is another hurricane out there, Nicole, which a few days ago they gave only a 10% chance of even developing into named storm, and now it is a category 2 105MPH hurricane still increasing in strength despite an unfavorable environment for doing so.

Matthew is going to change the courses of many lives forever, in the US.

And in Haiti..................:

 

[gcal]

The models beyond  3 days have this storm hooking back and recurving back into South florida in 5 days.

Not saying that is gonna happen, and if it does it will likely be a much weakened storm not requiring an Evacuation of the keys even if it proved accurate

But, they don't really know, neither do I, nor you.

There is another hurricane out there, Nicole, which a few days ago they gave only a 10% chance of even developing into named storm, and now it is a category 2 105MPH hurricane still increasing in strength despite an unfavorable environment for doing so.

Matthew is going to change the courses of many lives forever, in the US.

And in Haiti..................:

Nicole is not supposed to come anywhere the US, I thought.

 

[SternWake]

It's not. Nicole was an example of how hard these things are to predict and how wrong they have been.

Given a 10% chance of developing, It developed into a category 2 storm in 5 days in an unfavorable environment for doing so.

 

[SternWake]

there is a lunatic driving around in Cocoa beach broadcasting live as the eyewall appraoaches. looks like 45 to 60mph winds with some higher gusts so far

 

[DwelledLongAgo]

there is a lunatic driving around in Cocoa beach broadcasting live as the eyewall appraoaches. looks like 45 to 60mph winds with some higher gusts so far.

Lunatic is right. It takes a certain mixture of bravery and crazy to brave a hurricane. There's a lot that could go wrong really fast. Driving around in one just to get video? Not me.

 

[sparky1]

im about 180 miles inland Virginia all i'm getting right now is RAIN. & tomorrow too. 61 degrees & light wind.
Be safe all.

 

[Belinda2]

Yes, Sparky1 is in Virginia and I am north of him in Maryland and we are just getting rain.
Stern Wake, The great thing is that we are SUPER mobile....as long as we have gas in our vehicles our whole home moves!!!!!
It's fantastic and I smile about it EVERY day!
Belinda2

 

[SternWake]

Florida is largely being spared the worst of the wind damage as the eye so far has stayed offshore, and an Eyewall replacement cycle began as it neared the coast which diluted the strength of winds in the center but extended tropical storm force winds out to a larger radius.

Those who prepared and evacuated are now going to say Harrumph then next time some Hurricane warnings go up.

Really those issuing the warnings can't win. If they do not warn properly they will be lambasted by everybody. If overcautious they get lambasted by those inconvenienced for something which did not occur.

Weather forecasting can never be 100% accurate, not until the time machine is perfected.

 

[BradKW]

The problem is rarely the actual meteorologist egghead who brings as much science and experience to bear on storm prediction. In fact, while hurricanes aren't "easy" to predict, the weather wonks actually do a pretty amazing job these days if you pay attention to just the facts.

The issue is the way "news" has morphed into a ratings-based entertainment business...if it bleeds it leads, or in the case of storms, if it can be hyped to create real fear it leads constantly. I have a co-worker that just spend the equivalent of two pay checks to buy plane tickets to evacuate his wife and teenagers because she was in near panic even after it made it's turn and it was clear KW wasn't going to get hit. He couldn't afford that, I tried to explain it was totally unnecessary, and intellectually he agreed with me.

However with hurricanes, the news cycle gets so spun up, logic loses out to the 24/7 emotional hype cycle, turning people's' fears and uncertainties into a commodity. And a fair bit of the population loves feeding and participating the fear/panic cycle...they find it emotionally rewarding and exciting. I literally feel myself getting angry when I overhear small groups of people attempting to get themselves worked up about a tropical depression that's still mid-atlantic.

So while the backlash does occur, it's as intellectually dishonest as the rest of the storm-panic game. It's not the eggheads that are to blame, they do solid work. But if people don't blame them, then they would have to accept responsibility for their own addiction to gossip and herd-like fear games, and the favorite pretty bobbleheads that spout it from their TV sets. It's the feeling of having been suckered that causes the backlash...and people blame random targets for that.

 

[RossCoe]

We have property in Hilton Head Island, SC.  2 blocks from the beach.....  Preparing to lose it all.  It doesn't look too good.  It's not our primary home, so we are gonna be luckier than others who actually live there.

 

[LeeRevell]

Being a lifelong Floridian, I live with the threat of hurricanes. I take any weather prognostication with a cup of salt - most are worthless. I pay much more attention to the weather radar maps. Weather_dot_com lies to me. But their radar map is quite good, usually.
I also check the maps with the various hurricane model tracks. Comparing them as the storm approaches to the actual track after it passes gives you a good example of which models tend most often to be accurate.
My particular area of Florida has natural geologic features that usually stear big storms east or west of us. Didn't quite work with Hermine, but the worst of it did pass just east of us. I live west of town, so was spared the worst.
Learning to read the weather is critical, especially for mobile folks.

 

[SternWake]

The Media is out of control certainly.


One example was one reporter was standing on top of some dunes in North Florida, which were fenced off and which had obviously been planted with dune grass to help fight dune erosion.  The storm at the time was still below the Bahamas.  The tide was out, the waves only 3 to 4 feet, the wind maybe 20Mph onshore.

Very far from threatening conditions and would be a minimim of 36 hours before getting there.

But as the reporter trammelled the dunegrass, in the background, there was 2 people standing on the very wide beach at low tide, as the reporter called them crazy and fools for not having evacuated from these dire conditions and putting the lives of rescue workers in danger.  

Reminds me of local news channels when it rains in San Diego.  Each Cold front which makes it this far south is hailed as the mother off all rain events.  A reporter will be standing in full rain gear dripping water everywhere and disheveled, in front of a puddle under a streetlight showing motionless foliage and  only the lightest of misty drizzle, and practically starts declaring the end of the world is upon us.  At least get a large fan and a firehose.  I give them a D- for effort.

I have Friends in Coastal South Carolina who prepped their properties as well as possible and went inland.  Their neighbors were cleaning their guns on their front porches  drinking beer, and not going anywhere.

Looks like North Atlantic Florida suffered some damage and flooding.  Lets not call this storm a farce until  it recurves away from the coast .

 

[RossCoe]

Making landfall in Hilton Head. My house has a big fat X on it!! Hope insurance isn't a total disaster. I lived thru Sandy in NJ and my daughter was going to college on Staten Island. It devastated parts of both those states. I have a healthy respect for water and destructive forces of hurricanes!