Can a Van Last for 40 Years?

[One Awesome Inch]

So eventually my ex is going to sell the condo I own half of (as of July 2015) and as a result I'll likely get $50,000 - 60,000 out of it. I could buy it now and make payments but I'd rather avoid that.

I was thinking of buying a brand new Transit or Promaster (leaning towards the pm because of the larger space in the living area though in other ways I prefer the Transit ).

Last year I drove approximately 6000km or about 3800 miles. 

I'm now 46 years old and I figure by my late 80s I'll be dead or unable to drive.

 40 years is a long time. It's not often you hear of someone owning the same vehicle for that long. Add to that I'm sure by then electric vehicles will dominate the market meaning gasoline may be in short supply .

Thoughts? 

Other considerations I am not thinking of?

 

[Trebor English]

There are 1978 vans on the road today.  Not many but they do exist.  They don't have an OBDII diagnostic port so keeping them running at age 40 requires a mechanic at least that old.  Back then there were predictions that internal combustion would be gone by now.  In the next 40 years there will be changes.  

A 1957 Chevrolet BelAir, 60 year old, with the original cylinder heads needs leaded regular gas that is not available now.  A 1978 van, youngster at only 40,  can use available fuel.  In 2058 a 2018 van may have acceptable fuel available.  I'm not so good at predicting things, particularly in the future.

 

[highdesertranger]

no front wheel drive is going to last 40 years. in fact most of your newer computer controlled vehicles will not make it that long. newer vehicles are basically considered disposable. use once and throw away, buy again. highdesertranger

 

[flying kurbmaster]

6,000kms per year that is only 240,000 kms done easily, the van will last, however plenty of things you haven;t thought about when thinking 40 years into the futur. My guess driverless electric drones will move people around, so maybe there will be plenty of parking, perhaps fuel will be taxed so heavily that you will not be able to drive anywhere or they will eliminate all the roads to build more condos with roof top drone parking. At the very least roads will never see daylight in a city as they will build over them as land becomes so valuable. What’s for dinner?

 

[EnduroRdr]

Let’s see 40 years?
Didn’t Doc return return to 1985 from 2015 in a flying delorean in BTF-2
That was only 30 years ahead! [emoji23]

LOL probably still no flying vans but If anything, we might see more electric vehicles by then!


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[DannyB1954]

My van is a 1983 Dodge B250. I rebuilt the engine, transmission and front suspension. It is 35 now, but I bet it will be on the road at 50. If the frame is solid, (no rust), just about everything else can be replaced.

 

[Van-Tramp]

No modern van will last 40 years... no way. They are made too poorly and with too many electronics and plastics. It will cost more to keep it running then it will be worth in 10 years. No way around that.

But many 30-40 year old vans are still on the road today. Mine is 29 years old, 157,000 miles, and still going well. I've put an average of 10,500 miles on it each year (8,000 already this year). I do have to replace a part or two each year, but that is expected and luckily not very costly at all.

I have a 1978 (40 years old) Datsun that is still on the road today (my son owns it now actually) and it still runs great. However, it has less than 60,00 miles on it. That is less than 1.500 miles each year on average.

 

[Minivanmotoman]

Yes, no, maybe, depends. Might/could.
Under normal status quo conditions, more than likely not, as stated by everyone above.

But if you bought a late model, used rear wheel drive, or new, old proven technology, durable GM van, there's a better than even chance that you could keep that going for 20+ yrs due to the length of its production run, popularity with commercial fleets, lots of new and used, interchangeable and affordable parts, many interchangeable with pickups, etc...
Have seen online people reportedly buying new ones in the $25k price range discounted. The GM commercial van is still the top seller in the commercial market. Lots out there means parts for years to come, new and used, third party jobber, reasonably priced.
Same could be said for pickups utilizing a slide in or trailer.
With the internet, there will be info about hacks available to keep things running. There are now, if you check the import, sports and niche vehicles forums. This will continue out of necessity. Plus scavenging from donor scraped cars. Of course, you will need to educate yourself and be handy, always required to keep a car running on the road, long term, economically.

The comment about the vehicle will not be worth repairing is true, if you have to pay professional repair costs and it's not rusted out. Move to a rust free, dry climate .
If you can do most of the work yourself, keep your mileage down, get reasonable cost parts, utilize mobile mechanics for heavy duty jobs, might/ should be able to keep running/maintenance costs way below new car costs/financing/insurance costs. The average new vehicle price is now over $34k. And in a couple decades, what will they be with inflation and dollar valuations?
I think 20-30+ yrs from a recent GM van might/ should be possible.
Too much infrastructure investment for gas to disappear too quickly and be replaced by electric which doesn't have the infastructure to support millions of vehicles. The hydro grid is old and can barely keep up with current demand.

Here's another option. Don't blow your stack on one new vehicle. Instead buy a good used recent van for $10k, the old style rear wheel drive from GM or Ford and invest the balance.
Should be able to run that with proper maintenance and replacement/scavenged parts for ten to twenty plus years, if you keep the mileage down. Then take your invested nest egg and update again to something that hopefully will last another 20 yrs. Keep your initial investment as cheap as possible to stay financially nimble, keep your options open. As we all know, a vehicle is a pure financial loss. Keep it minimal is smart.

The Promaster is running the Pentastar engine. Making tons of them for many vehicles and it is well regarded. That is it's only known saving grace for longevity, and that it's being installed in the popular Jeep. Should be lots of parts for future requirements. The transmissions are the issue there, I think, and from what has been reported. Specialized to repair and parts not impossible but not readily available nor cheap and over the counter. Again, scavenged could still make it feasible. The electronics are the big unknown here in terms of long term durability. Bigger risk when compared to the tried and true, proven GM old mechanical technology Vans. But you pay a premium in mpg for that reliability. They have electronics as well but proven probably the most reliable of all.
Everything has it's compromises.
Pick what seems to make the most sense to you and your situation. Do your own research.
Couple thoughts to consider for your benefit.

 

[highdesertranger]

Amen to that Guy. when will someone come up with a truly smart traffic light. more fuel is wasted every year with vehicles sitting at traffic lights then any one thing. highdesertranger

 

[tx2sturgis]

♫ In the year twenty five twenty five....if man is still alive... ♫ 

I have no words of wisdom for a such a long range plan....other than to suggest that at some point, maybe 10 or 20 years from now, you might grow tired of the mobile lifestyle, or possibly be incapable of sustaining it for whatever reason. 

Or maybe by then they will have the transporter and warp engines figured out, and will beam us all to nice new habitable planet in another galaxy. 

My long range plans at this point are focused on the next 365 days...of course, I just turned 60 so I suppose I'm not far from pushing up daisies anyway!

 

[nlclemmensen]

.... distraction so that you don't notice that in spite of talking about it for the last fifty years 'they' still haven't synchronized the traffic lights.

::snort::

Soooooo true!

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[frater secessus]

The GM commercial van is still the top seller in the commercial market.

Transit cargo outsells Express+Savana cargo 2:1, and outsells PM 5:1.

 

[Minivanmotoman]

Thx for catching and correcting that Frater.
My memory didn't serve me well on that one. Seems the stat I read had to do with GM commercial van sales increasing significantly over the past year when everyone else was decreasing. Sales stats can sometimes be tricky and interpreted creatively. Or wrongly in my case. My bad, getting old.
Like I said, always do your own research. Frater does. Lol.

Btw, did you know that Ford isn't always the top selling pickup in America? They are, but only if you don't combine the Chevy/GM pickup total sales, in some years. Marketing manipulation.

So you're the one who reads my long posts. Lol.
Long night shifts at work?

 

[bullfrog]

Ha! You guys crack me up! Nearest traffic light is well over 150 miles from me. But you do have a valid point, I don't know how fuel prices affect you but many here couldn't afford to travel many miles in a forty year old heavy duty vehicle or would want to with many little things worn and not quite working like they should. I have a hard time keeping my wife's vehicle which is only 15 years old up to her specs. " Oh look honey the stiching is coming loose on the seat back!" Me," I've got an old tee shirt I can sew the arms up and slide over it." Her," I've already got the upholstery shop making a new one for only $350!" I guess I better work a little extra next week.

 

[One Awesome Inch]

Y all have some interesting ideas. Thanks.

Add to those not mentioned is global warming and the notion that our climate in Vancouver is going to be much warmer in 40 years. I really don't like too much heat. When it's cold one can add clothes or turn up the heater. When it's hot there are only so many clothes one can remove.

I will likely end up buying a newer van at some point. Up here rent is super expensive and in the last 3 years I've saved well over $36000. Thats about the cost of the pm up here in Canada so it will have paid for itself well before it's demise.

I currently make pretty good money and I am heavily investing into my government sponsored pension... like $500 every 2 weeks is being deducted. Financially I'll be fine in my senior years. Hopefully anyway.

A friend of mine who lives in a Transit says when it's no longer drivable she is just going to park it and live out of it on some farmers rented property. That's an interesting idea.

What about front wheel drive limits the vans lifespan?

 

[highdesertranger]

front wheel drive has many moving parts(wear parts) all moving parts wear. it's very expensive to totally rebuild a front wheel drive, even the ones with cheaper parts. sooner or later it cost more to bring the front end back to factory specs then the vehicle is worth. at which time the vehicle is considered scrap.

add to that any type of accident that bends the frame renders the vehicle junk. this is especially true for uni-bodies. it doesn't even have to be a real accident, a lot of off road driving will tweak the frame. front wheel drives are especially venerable to the frame tweaking. once it happens a true wheel alignment is impossible. tire wear and drivability will suffer. most insurance companies will total any front wheel drive with frame damage.

front wheel drive just isn't as durable as rear wheel drive. these larger vehicles with front wheel drive are pushing the limits. anytime you push the limits does not make for a long term reliable vehicle.

just look around how many front wheel drives from the 80's do you see still on the road, the 80's is when front wheel drive became common. most of the vehicles from the 90's still on the road are rear wheel drive.

I have worked on all types of vehicles starting in the 60's. I even had my own shop for a while. I would never own a front wheel drive unless I could make a buck flipping it. my 2 cents. highdesertranger

 

[One Awesome Inch]

I appreciate your response. Mechanicaly I prefer the Transit, but the promaster allows me to build the bed across the back which translates to much more usable room. Tough decision.

 

[flying kurbmaster]

They put over a million kms on some of those Mercedes Vans, I have seen Ford transit ambulances with over 800,000 kms they are all front wheel drive, i have a 1993 front wheel drive that I predict will easily last another 10 years if not more. The tranny was done and I mistakenly changed the front axles a year or tow ago which tuned out to be a motor mount so although I have a lot of respect for HDR knowledge when it comes to vehicles I think there are less moving parts on a front wheel drive perhaps a bit less skulking, No drive shafts, no diferential with gears, just axles that come out of the transmission. What could be simpler?

 

[bullfrog]

I have done exactly that as when our 1983 motor home's drive train got to expensive labor intensive to maintain we lucked into a situation where working remotely allowed us to park it and continued to use it to live in. It has worked well for us for more than ten years. I also own a 1978 truck and a 1987 car that even though they are repairable there are not as many high quality factory spec parts available as there used to be, which makes their reliabilaty questionable and results in having to carry tools and spares. I own a 15 year old Toyota Sequioa that I have spent almost as much on preventative maintence as I did for the car (we bought it used) but it has gone over 200,000 miles without a breakdown getting between 16 to 18 miles per gallon and is by far more comfortable and easier to drive now we are both well into our 60"s. It is my wife's car as she has developed physical issues that makes driving the older vehicles painful. Would a car last is different than will everything work like it did new and your body may change physically to where you will want something that does. I would say most new vehicles would do well to last 15 to 20 years if maintained really well. If stored inside and driven twice a month 250 miles with good fuel, never abused and flawlessly maintained maybe much longer, but that's not what we talking about living in one driving over dirt roads is it.

 

[highdesertranger]

well kurbmaster I must disagree.

a front wheel drive has 2 drive shafts they are turned sideways and misnamed axles. plus instead of 2 u-joints you have 4 CV-joints which are not near as easy to replace, a lot more expensive and you need to get a front end alignment after servicing them.

what do you mean a front wheel drive has no differential. trust me there is a differential inside the transmission. if there wasn't how would you turn corners. having an open differential is essential for a front wheel drive have you ever tried to turn a front wheel drive with a locked differential? it's impossible.

this leads to another problem with a front wheel drive you can't just drop a locker in. leaving you with one wheel drive. glad you reminded me of that one. highdesertranger