the Stock Market

[Seraphim]

Market took another's beating today- total US market down 1.57%. Same culprit - oil prices. Or, more accurately, lemming investor responses to oil prices...

 

[HarmonicaBruce]

total US market down 1.57%. Same culprit - oil prices.

I can remember the market getting hit because oil prices went UP, not down. Cheap oil means cheap energy means lower costs for farmers, and most businesses. Cheap oil means more disposable income for consumers. Sure, the oil companies might be hurt some, but everyone else benefits.

 

[akrvbob]

We have a seperate thread to discuss the economy. Any off-topic posts here will be deleted.
Bob

 

[gojo]

On StockCharts.com, I see at todays closing, there were 137, 52 week highs and 752, 52 week lows. Looks like the bears are winning again.
Usually on a big correction you'll see a double top formation. I don't see one, unless one could still form.

I don't swim against the current, I swim with the current.
Same as on stocks....

 

[HarmonicaBruce]

Ok, I just now bought UCO (crude oil etf) for $11.21. I also sold a Jan 17, $12 call for .90. If UCO stays where it's at for the next month, I'll make 8.7% return for one month. It has to go down over 9% in the next monthy for me to lose anything. Wish me luck, or better yet, pray for me! (I'm just a dumb hillbilly and I need all the help I can get).

 

[Seraphim]

I think the oil based market drop is over. The lemmings got reassured, lost their fear, and are buying back shares. Dont know what the market closed at. That's unusual for me. Maybe I'll to Morningstar and take a peek...

---

Oh crap - proven wrong already.

Last I looked this morning US equities were up .75%. They closed -.67%

Can I get mustard with that crow?

 

[HarmonicaBruce]

I think the oil based market drop is over.

I could / should have waited to buy, UCO went down and closed at $11.12, but it's $11.35 after hours. If it's over $12 on Jan 17 I'll net 16% profit. The premiums for UCO calls are ridiculously high. Taking candy from a baby!

 

[gojo]

It's that time of the year again. End of the year sell off.
I remember in 1999 I bot shares of one stock for $0.25, on New Years eve. About a month later sold it for $1.50.

Spring of 2000, I bot, few thousand share of CarMax Inc. (KMC), for $1.56 or 1 9/16, sold it for $4.25. Wish I still had it, closed today at $58.84. Wonder if it had any splits.

Bot AIRM for $1.25 back in 1995, sold it at 3 something, today closed @ $41.35....

 

[Seraphim]

And I wished I'd bought Tesla two years ago...lol. I'd own one now...

I generally schedule distributions for February. Gives the indexes time to rise again. A lot of sell offs happen the first part of January - the new tax year.

 

[Dust-In-the-Wind]

Look for oil at or near $43 before the pullback finishes. Just my opinion, based on research and chart analysis.

 

[gojo]

Look for oil at or near $43 before the pullback finishes. Just my opinion, based on research and chart analysis.

Yeah, I read that somewhere.

I have a friend that owns around 25 acres, that's in a oil pool of over 600 acres, in the Eagle Ford Shale. He quit his job. He'll probably be looking in the next few months.

 

[Dust-In-the-Wind]

Yeah, I read that somewhere.

I have a friend that owns around 25 acres, that's in a oil pool of over 600 acres, in the Eagle Ford Shale. He quit his job. He'll probably be looking in the next few months.

Funny, I never published that anywhere

 

[gojo]

Funny, I never published that anywhere

I read it somewhere that it will go down to the 40s., now they're predicting the low 50s.

I call that stupid news, because I don't believe in predictions. Lets just say we're getting near the bottom.

I never swim against the current, I swim with the current...I go with the flow...

 

[Seraphim]

Arabian oil rep Sunday advised OPEC would do nothing unless oil prices dropped to $40. So, knowing how OPEC plans to respond gives investors more confidence to invest as they wish. How far down it will actually go is anyone's guess, but there is less uncertainty about whether or not OPEC will curtail production. I thought this news would help stop prices from falling further and encourage buying. So far, I was wrong.

 

[Mac J]

Todays market (Tuesday Dec 16th) looks rather promising. Is the scare over? Time will tell boys and girls, time will tell.

 

[Seraphim]

That's what I thought yesterday lol.

 

[Seraphim]

No it's not over..

-.79 % today US market. I think the international equities were down over twice that much.

 

[Bdog1]

At least it was anything but dull today!

 

[gojo]

Where will the markets bottom out at?
Some might call this a prediction, so be it.
It's call the Fibonacci 50% retracement. It works on some commodity charts, I'll try it on the stock charts and see what happens. Here is where the bottom will be near.

DJIA will bottom near: 16701
Nasdaq will bottom near: 4412

Come on lets hear some..

 

[Seraphim]

We played the prediction game this year on the Morningstar forum. I predicted US equities would rise 5% in 2014, but they were up over 10.

Hey wait - after the last few days, I just might be right! Lol

---

YTD US index as of closing yesterday was 6.59%. It's up this morning over half a percent. But the days young...

---

Just for clarification, the only US equity index I track is Morningstar US Market, as it covers all US stocks, not just industrials or the 500 largest cap stocks...