Robot vehicles everywhere - ten years

[Goshawk]

Is everyone ready for this? Robot car. Robot truck. Everywhere in ten years. For less than the paycheck of a truck driver, you know most companies, most bus drivers, will all replace their staffing.

Elon Musk saying will be available in two years. Then regulatory licensing in 1 to 5 years after in each state. Robot driver will be better than most drivers.

 

[GotSmart]

Are you a betting man?  

Pipe dreams.

 

[SoulRaven]

I don't see it. It is nothing that people could afford to begin with. Having grown up in the 60s, I thought we would be living like "The Jetsons" by now and it seems every day we move more toward the "The Flintstones". All that technology sounds good but there just isn't the money to finance it. In the 70s, I remember looking at electric cars in a showroom in Elkhart, IN. They were to be the "thing". Yeah, that happened. So many variables involved with business dynamics and money.

 

[Goshawk]

A truck driver making $40000 a year with benefits. How is that not a cost that can be cut in half with a computer and sensors?

 

[TMG51]

Is everyone ready for this?  Robot car. Robot truck. Everywhere in ten years. For less than the paycheck of a truck driver, you know most companies, most bus drivers, will all replace their staffing.

Elon Musk saying will be available in two years. Then regulatory licensing in 1 to 5 years after in each state. Robot driver will be better than most drivers.

Top Gear had an interesting banter segment on "driverless cars." Their premise was this: Sometimes, stuff goes wrong. Crashes will happen despite all safety measures and planning. And, because accidents are in some small percentage an inevitability, the cars will have to be programmed to make ethical decisions. I.E., a bus full of nuns just tipped over in the road, no time to brake, there's a woman pushing a stroller to the left but only one passenger in the car being piloted, so the car sends you into the lamp post on the right. The conclusion was that one would have to buy a car knowing that it might under some circumstances be programmed to kill you.

I don't think it'd go that way. And I don't think we're within sight of robotic cars yet. But it was a fun bit of speculative banter.

 

[ACagedTraveller]

The driverless, robotic cars might alleviate the atrocious traffic of metropolitan areas everyday inside the United States of America.

 

[Reducto]

They're coming, but it will take some time for adoption to spread. Cost won't be a huge issue - it's just a few sensors, motors, and electronics. The software hasn't been sorted out yet but it's moving along rapidly.

There is a theory that although driverless cars will be able to use the roads more efficiently they will actually lead to MORE traffic because people will move further away from their jobs. People like to live close to work now because driving in is a hassle but if they can sleep, play games, or work during their commute they won't care if it's 80 miles each way.

Personally I'm looking forward to being able to step in the back and sleep while my van drives me to the next state.

 

[Optimistic Paranoid]

I don't see "driverless cars" anytime soon.  AI just ain't even close yet.

I DO see "automated cars" coming. 

In large urban areas, they will be programmed to stay under the speed limit, not to treat a yellow light as "speed up to beat the red" signal, they won't allow you to block an intersection, and so on.

Regards
John

 

[Canine]

Just read on the news this morning that Google and Ford are teaming up.Oh yeah,It's coming.

 

[johnny b]

The first death of a child at the hands of A.I. and the lawyers will shut it down.

I'm still waiting for the computerized 'skyways' that are supposed to usher in the flying car era.  

 

[Patrick46]

Personally I'm looking forward to being able to step in the back and sleep while my van drives me to the next state.

UFFFF!!! Not Me!!!

I know how mad I get as it is when my computer skrews up...

I'm not gonna be the guy to release all control over my driving, and for the safety of my life to some computer! There will NEVER be enough trust there! No frikken way!!

Yes, I do now whenever I get onto an airline...but there are humans to override any autopilot errors, and there always are some! (and I don't like it either way)


b'sides...you'll miss the beauty of the scenery sleeping in the back!!!

 

[TMG51]

b'sides...you'll miss the beauty of the scenery sleeping in the back!!!

Not if traveling through New Jersey!

 

[karl]

ditto that TMG, and I swear two hours on I 95 by NYC takes 6 months off my life!

 

[flying kurbmaster]

it is already here, where have you been, they are called skytrain, light rapid transit, metros, commuter trains, it is a small step to go on all the roads, have personal space pods or cars or perhaps not even use roads, people will be living closer not further from work in fact they will likely be living in pods at work. the modern day vandwellers are breaking the way of the future proving we can live in pods like spaces and be happy, space will be at a premium as the population on the planet expands at the crazy rates it is going or we will see none of it and chaos will prevail if the powers that be, loose control. Gangs will roam take over tracks of land and cities, loot, and destroy, wait that is already happening too. ....

 

[LeeRevell]

We "old dawgs" will not embrace it, and will actively avoid it.  I hate the crutches of air bags and ABS brakes.  Cannot avoid them on newer vehicles though they can be disabled or removed.  I also expect more "limiters" on our vehicles as the tech "progresses".  Often "progress" really isn't.

 

[flying kurbmaster]

you are right there will be an element in society that will not embrace it, fight it. only over the next bit of changes these people will be in much larger numbers. They will be outsiders no longer able to function within society or the main stream, this is also already happening if you are not hooked on line now a days, have a credit card or a cell, or a recognized form of ID you are not able to access things available to other citizens. Heck there is a homeless guy in Vancouver who won the lottery and he can't even claim his winnings because he has no picture ID, can't get his birth certificate because he has no address and no ID to get his ID. Once you are separated I think it will harder and harder to re-enter. Reminds of the custom officer who once told me we don't really want you here anyway, have a nice stay.

 

[Canine]

I'm looking forward to it.People that drive as bad as I do shouldn't be driving anyway.,

 

[Goshawk]

Maybe if some super computer started winning nascar or Indianapolis 500. Then it might happen ?

 

[SoulRaven]

Could anyone find the price point estimate on a robotic car? With the google robotics, the cost for the system started out at $75,000 for the laser controlled sensors that sit on top of the car but they feel they could bring it down to just an additional $10,000 to $15,000 per vehicle, that is in addition to the vehicle base price. I bought my Dodge Durango, 2007 earlier this year for a total of a little over $8,000. Google was talking "all or nothing". We'll see.

 

[speedhighway46]

The technology is being developed on the backs of the consumer in the form of various semi-automated systems which are "standard" and can't be disabled. We are basically paying for the R&D costs and can't "option out." Then, soon, all these individual systems will be implemented together resulting in an autonomous vehicle.

After developing and perfecting the technology the next step will be introducing it to the consuming public. Autonomous cars have enough "upsides" I would think it would be embraced very quickly. But, not until . . .

The laws and legislation has to be finalized. Our lawmakers are not particularly fast on their feet, and may provide a bottleneck for this technology to be widely available. Market forces and the huge amount of money laying on the table might force our elected folks to get off their asses and do something.

However, the greatest potential to holdup implementation of the technology will reside in the court system; assigning liability. When there is loss, who is accountable? The car manufacturer? The software authors? The vehicle owner sitting alone in the rear seat? Who get stuck with the bill? There are too many lawyers in the world to let this goldmine go undefined.

Just my thoughts. Thanks.