I really dislike the AGW threads and hope if someone feels the need to debate Anthropomorphic global warming they go rehash the other threads/PiS$ing contests.
The water here off of Southern California is as warm as it has ever Been. I could swear it was over 76F the other morning. I think my previous maximum summers past was a brief 72f, and I no longer find temps over 72f to be refreshing, unless of course the air is 52f.
Growing up a surfer in the NE, I became an avid weather channel junkie, as that was the only real source of information pre internet. I love the tropical Swells generated, If a Nor'Easter blew up, I was hoping for it to be a Giant.
Now I live in Socal, mostly because the weather is pleasant and it is Easy/convenient to be a surfer here, Swells last for days, not hours, and one is largely well away from the weather which spawned the swells. As far as wave Quality, i got way more barrels in NJ that i do here.
I still keep close eyes on the weather, I know if Storms in the South Pacific have their fetch aimed in this direction, the sea heights, the maximum sustained winds, and I also see if the predictions of these actually come to bear and how far out they are.
The worst track record of predictions lately, in my observational opinion, is the intensity of the eastern pacific tropical systems. 3 days ago the NHC said there was 10% chance of a storm forming below Baja. Yesterday it was 30%, now it is at 70%. The GFS model I linked to a few posts up, yesterday it had just some light green with a sporadic darker green blob entering the desert SW, and not the Giant blobs of green purple and blue cover Baja and the SW as it displays now.
The track and location of this storm is going to push lot of air up the Sea of Cortez. It has no place to go but Up, and rising air is unstable. At one point even after the bulk of the tropical system moves over land, then they have the area of low pressure deepening over Baja itself. Usually tropical systems break apart over the mountains of baja and get sheared apart, but now they have this system deepening and intensifying over the mountains themselves, drawing on the extremely warm water on the Sea of Cortez side, as well as the well above average water temps on the pacific side.
This coming weather event has serious potential to do some outlandish things, and while you might be safe from desert flash floods up in Flagstaff, You might still find incredible T storms and their associated fallout.
They are calling for upto an Inch of Rain here in Coastal S california, well that was before the latest GFS model tripled the intensity of the tropical system moving in this direction. Should be interesting to see how this evening local news channels change their forecast.
We got an inch in a few hours here in San Diego last Tuesday. Kind of unprecedented at this time of year. This next one Could be a sleeper if the models are even only half accurate. Do not trust the forecasts on this one. I've got a feeling this one could be well underrated and way more unpredictable. Not that they have done a good job on any predictions as of late.
The staggering increase in intensity over the last 12 hours on the GFS model runs, just shows me how uncertain the models are. the satellite presentation of the tropical system has me think it will reach named status before landfall, even though they are not forecasting for it to do so.
Hurricane Linda, whose remnants were a large part of the moisture from last week's flooding/rain event, was never supposed to even make it beyond a brief tropical storm strength, instead it decided to achieve Cat3 Status, in the same general area where the center of the current tropical system is located.
