MrAlvinDude
Well-known member
- Joined
- Nov 11, 2017
- Messages
- 340
- Reaction score
- 6
For the sake of clarity, I have copied this text below from an other thread.
-------------------------------------------------------
What has been different between the yearly influenza and covid-19?
Well, some cities have had a very different experience with covid-19 and the regular influenza.
In particular some cities in the north of Italy, some cities in Spain, and then New York.
The regular influenza does NOT cause similar hospital crises. This covid-19 thing made everything different for the hospitals in those cities, in ways that they had simply NOT seen before.
So each of those cities had to learn the same lessons.
And it would seem that some cities in France, and some more cities the US, also needed to learn and see for themselves, that in some ways this covid-19 is indeed very different than the yearly influenza.
Fortunately, so far, none of the worst case (country wide) predictions have manifested themselves, because it has turned out that a few simple measures, have been able to slow down the spread considerable.
And in the cities that have been hit hard, those same measures also work, and within a few weeks, have slowed down the spread considerably.
So right now, with the measures in place, it would seem that the speed of spread is more manageable and more controllable.
It seems that the speed/rate of spread is technically expressed as R₀ (r-naught)
Where R₀ = 1 means that one person spreads the illness to one other person.
So if R₀ < 1 then the spread will die out, eventually. Because one person will only spread the illness to less than one more person. Or rather, not everyone who gets ill, will cause another person to become ill.
If R₀ = 1 then it will continue until everyone has been ill. But it will take some time.
If R₀ > 1 then one person will cause more than just one other to become ill as well.
In Germany the 'president' Angela Merkel, who herself has a Ph.D in biology, has explained that that if Germany’s R₀ were to shift from a flat rate of 1.0 to 1.1, the nation’s hospitals would be crushed by October. If the R₀ goes up to 1.2, that overload hits in July.
And it should be noted that in Europe, Germany has the most “wiggle room” in their health care system, compared to the rest of Europe.
And it should also be noted that the US has less 'wiggle room', than they do in Germany.
https://www.vox.com/2020/4/17/21225916/c...g-lockdown
Now, in Italy, early on in the outbreak, they experienced a R₀ between 1.4 and 3.58 depending on the city.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ar...3620300410
In Wuhan there are indicators that R₀ could have been as high as 5.7 early on in the outbreak.
https://qz.com/1834700/rt-the-real-time-...lockdowns/
In France, it is estimated that the lock-downs have changed R₀ from 3.3 to 0.5
But in reality one needs to observe R₀ at every city, region or epicenter.
So I wonder what R₀ is for your location (city, state, country)?
It would seem that R₀ for the Seasonal flu hovers around 1.3.
But people do not get as sick from the flue, as they do from covid-19, so a R₀ at 1.3 for the flue, will not overhelme the health care system.
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/arch...ad/605632/
So all in all, I would say, that even the subtle differences between the flue, influenza and covid-19, are such, that they clearly have had a significantly different level of impact on humanity.
And I think it will be very interesting to eventually see, what we can get away with, in terms of as few simple preventive measures as possible, in order to keep this new virus at bay.
And it will be interesting to see if these preventive measures will need to be widespread or even permanent implementations, in adjusted behavior, in order for us to get back to something that resembles every day living.
It will also be interesting to see if the preventive measures will need to be different inside cities and outside cities.
But if the 'wiggle room' is between 1.0 and 1.15, and the 'natural range' is 1.5 to 4.0, then I have no doubt that it will take a few months, before we have discovered, learned and fully implemented the necessary changes of how we humans interact and socially behave in different settings.
So far my prediction is; that just as 'The Matrix' changed what was possible and common place in filmatic traditions, similarly this new virus will change some traditions in 'life as we know it'.
So yeah, I do think there are some 'subtle' differences between 'the flue' and this new virus.
-------------------------------------------------------
What has been different between the yearly influenza and covid-19?
Well, some cities have had a very different experience with covid-19 and the regular influenza.
In particular some cities in the north of Italy, some cities in Spain, and then New York.
The regular influenza does NOT cause similar hospital crises. This covid-19 thing made everything different for the hospitals in those cities, in ways that they had simply NOT seen before.
So each of those cities had to learn the same lessons.
And it would seem that some cities in France, and some more cities the US, also needed to learn and see for themselves, that in some ways this covid-19 is indeed very different than the yearly influenza.
Fortunately, so far, none of the worst case (country wide) predictions have manifested themselves, because it has turned out that a few simple measures, have been able to slow down the spread considerable.
And in the cities that have been hit hard, those same measures also work, and within a few weeks, have slowed down the spread considerably.
So right now, with the measures in place, it would seem that the speed of spread is more manageable and more controllable.
It seems that the speed/rate of spread is technically expressed as R₀ (r-naught)
Where R₀ = 1 means that one person spreads the illness to one other person.
So if R₀ < 1 then the spread will die out, eventually. Because one person will only spread the illness to less than one more person. Or rather, not everyone who gets ill, will cause another person to become ill.
If R₀ = 1 then it will continue until everyone has been ill. But it will take some time.
If R₀ > 1 then one person will cause more than just one other to become ill as well.
In Germany the 'president' Angela Merkel, who herself has a Ph.D in biology, has explained that that if Germany’s R₀ were to shift from a flat rate of 1.0 to 1.1, the nation’s hospitals would be crushed by October. If the R₀ goes up to 1.2, that overload hits in July.
And it should be noted that in Europe, Germany has the most “wiggle room” in their health care system, compared to the rest of Europe.
And it should also be noted that the US has less 'wiggle room', than they do in Germany.
https://www.vox.com/2020/4/17/21225916/c...g-lockdown
Now, in Italy, early on in the outbreak, they experienced a R₀ between 1.4 and 3.58 depending on the city.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ar...3620300410
In Wuhan there are indicators that R₀ could have been as high as 5.7 early on in the outbreak.
https://qz.com/1834700/rt-the-real-time-...lockdowns/
In France, it is estimated that the lock-downs have changed R₀ from 3.3 to 0.5
But in reality one needs to observe R₀ at every city, region or epicenter.
So I wonder what R₀ is for your location (city, state, country)?
It would seem that R₀ for the Seasonal flu hovers around 1.3.
But people do not get as sick from the flue, as they do from covid-19, so a R₀ at 1.3 for the flue, will not overhelme the health care system.
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/arch...ad/605632/
So all in all, I would say, that even the subtle differences between the flue, influenza and covid-19, are such, that they clearly have had a significantly different level of impact on humanity.
And I think it will be very interesting to eventually see, what we can get away with, in terms of as few simple preventive measures as possible, in order to keep this new virus at bay.
And it will be interesting to see if these preventive measures will need to be widespread or even permanent implementations, in adjusted behavior, in order for us to get back to something that resembles every day living.
It will also be interesting to see if the preventive measures will need to be different inside cities and outside cities.
But if the 'wiggle room' is between 1.0 and 1.15, and the 'natural range' is 1.5 to 4.0, then I have no doubt that it will take a few months, before we have discovered, learned and fully implemented the necessary changes of how we humans interact and socially behave in different settings.
So far my prediction is; that just as 'The Matrix' changed what was possible and common place in filmatic traditions, similarly this new virus will change some traditions in 'life as we know it'.
So yeah, I do think there are some 'subtle' differences between 'the flue' and this new virus.
