Covid-19 - everything you want to know - from the most successful expert on the issue

[MrAlvinDude]

[font=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]A very good, down to earth, yet detailed and very experienced and comprehensive take - on everything corona related - presented in a calm, respectful and very informative way, by the lead doctor of South Korea.

The country who has the proven lead, on how to manage and deal with this whole thing. 
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[font=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Listening to this man,  I'd say, that you will instantly know why they are in the lead. And how and why they are accomplishing the results, that their track record is proving, to the rest of the world. 
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[font=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Enjoy.
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[maki2]

Too bad we can't get those mask other than through price gougers.

 

[MrAlvinDude]

Too bad we can't get those mask other than through price gougers.

Indeed.

But perhaps things will eventually change, and industry will ramp up production, to again meet the demand. 
It is after all what is supposed to happen, in a free and open market - that supply will (eventually) meet the demand.


But what to do until then?

"Stay at home" - seems to be the mantra of the week.

"6 feet away - or 6 feet under" - seems to be another theme of the week.


But perhaps some DIY solutions might also be helpful.
http://theconversation.com/do-homem...es-but-leave-the-design-to-the-experts-134409

Here I notice sentiments like these:

"The general consensus among medical staff is, that homemade masks are better than nothing".

and

"Wearing face masks is not recommended (for the general public)
because people might overestimate the level of protection offered
- and neglect social distancing rules
- and thorough hand washing."


So face masks are no guarantee. But might change the odds a little bit.

Likewise, face shields are no guarantee. But might change the odds a little bit.

And "Stay at home" is no guarantee. But might vastly improve the odds.

And DIY masks are no guarantee. But they might change the odds a little bit.

 

[flying kurbmaster]

Great interview thanks for that

 

[Qxxx]

.... So face masks are no guarantee. But might change the odds a little bit.

I watched the entire interview yesterday. Good one. I had already decided that, if out wearing gloves as the main means of protection, then a face mask will be helpful at least in the sense of my inadvertently touching my face with the gloves after touching various and sundry surfaces. After all, how many times do I rub my nose in the course of a day.

 

[bullfrog]

I thought about using spices mixed in alcohol for hand sanitizer. I remember how badly sunscreen affected me when I got it on my hands and rubbed my eye. It should work after just a few episodes!

 

[Qxxx]

The FT page that AlvinDude originally posted has now changed its format, and it's probably easier to interpret. Previously, it was showing total number of cases and deaths, now it shows new cases.

This is more encouraging as it's clearer that China is in better shape than the rest of the world, and that Italy is now appearing to have "turned the corner". Lockdowns and social distancing can work if done right.

It also has more extensive maps at the bottom of the page.

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

 

[Qxxx]

Nightly news: the Federal Reserve indicates unemployment may rise to 32%.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/cor...-unemployment-rate-of-32percent-fed-says.html

 

[MrAlvinDude]

I thought about using spices mixed in alcohol for hand sanitizer.  I remember how badly sunscreen affected me when I got it on my hands and rubbed my eye.  It should work after just a few episodes!

Ouch!!!

But good one

 

[Spaceman Spiff]

 

[MrAlvinDude]

Here is a follow-up video with the same expert, as the first post.



I especially notice:
- everyone seems to be contagious for 2 days before one has symptoms.
This is not a new or unknown phenomenon.
This is also one of the characteristics of the long-time familiar RSV virus/influenza (Respiratory syncytial virus)
See also https://www.cdc.gov/rsv/index.html


- that a small percentage of covid-19 ill people will have a re-occurrence of the covid-19 illness.
Again, this is not a new or unknown phenomenon.
With the RSV illness, some will also get sick twice in a season, before a 3-5 year immunity can be observed.
It will be very 'interesting' to discover if this will also be a pattern that a small percentage of the covid-19 sick people will experience.


There are however many other clues and nuggets of good information in this follow-up video.

 

[Qxxx]

Thanks for the update, Alvin. Two things of interest ...

Dr Kim is testing several drugs, but so far there seem to be no good proven therapies coming from anywheres. Mainly just some anecdotal stories. At best, therapeutic medicines may be 3-4 months away.

At 31:00, he talks about why covid lasts longer on porous versus hard surfaces (maybe not new info). On porous surfaces, water molecules are drawn out of the virus, so it dries out and dies.

 

[Qxxx]

Ummm, I said that wrong. It lasts longer on hard surfaces.

 

[maki2]

Whenever I spot one of those spiny looking ball shaped creatures I am all ready to zap it with my bleach water spritzer. But so I have not yet seen on any surface a single one of them critters that look like that illustration. I heard they can even fly through the air at you, but I have not seen them doing that either.

 

[MrAlvinDude]

Good for you that you are alert - and ready to zappppp  :thumbsup:

I do however wonder if your are wearing the right kind googles, to be able to participate properly in the fight though.
I heard a rumor; that you need +600 to +6000 glasses in order to aim correctly  :angel:

So far I have only been able to find +6 glasses on ebay, so what gives :huh:


Or perhaps this guy is onto something


A video about visualizing how contamination might be spread.

 

[Qxxx]

Hey Alvin, I saw your post on the other thread in regards R0 values.

I made a post in the other thread in regards what Kucharski, an epidemiologist said:
https://vanlivingforum.com/showthread.php?tid=39723&pid=490903#pid490903
"Early in outbreak, each COVID-19 case infects ~2.5 others on average. There's ~5 days between one infection and next, so we'd expect one case to lead to 2.5^6 = 244 more cases in a month. If we can halve transmission, so each infects 1.25 others instead, we'd expect 4 more cases".

I was also looking at the "Total Cases" graph on this page. below the table:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

If you click on logarithmic scale, you can see there is straight line growth starting about Feb 29 and extending to Mar 26. IOW, Feb 29 is when exponential growth began. Looking at the numbers shows the "doubling time" is approx 2.5-3 days. In short, that's how long it took for the number of cases to double over the extent of the straight line portion.

Do you have an good idea how to extrapolate this graph data into your R0 values? It sounds like Kucharski's
"infects ~2.5 others on average" value is the same as your R0.

 

[Riverman]

Anyone have any news except doom and gloom?

 

[Qxxx]

Please don't water down this discussion, as has been done in ever other thread here !!!!! For christ's sake, you have 27 other threads to go water down.

 

[MrAlvinDude]

Hey Alvin, I saw your post on the other thread in regards R0 values.

I made a post in the other thread in regards what Kucharski, an epidemiologist said:
https://vanlivingforum.com/showthread.php?tid=39723&pid=490903#pid490903
"Early in outbreak, each COVID-19 case infects ~2.5 others on average. There's ~5 days between one infection and next, so we'd expect one case to lead to 2.5^6 = 244 more cases in a month. If we can halve transmission, so each infects 1.25 others instead, we'd expect 4 more cases".

I was also looking at the "Total Cases" graph on this page. below the table:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

If you click on logarithmic scale, you can see there is straight line growth starting about Feb 29 and extending to Mar 26. IOW, Feb 29 is when exponential growth began. Looking at the numbers shows the "doubling time" is approx 2.5-3 days. In short, that's how long it took for the number of cases to double over the extent of the straight line portion.

Do you have an good idea how to extrapolate this graph data into your R0 values? It sounds like Kucharski's
"infects ~2.5 others on average" value is the same as your R0.

I have not looked into the math correlation between 'rate of doubling', and R₀


But it does indeed seem like the "infects ~2.5 others on average" is indeed what R₀ represents

 

[Riverman]

If you spend your whole life waiting for the storm, you’ll never enjoy the sunshine.