Are any of you worried about autonomous vehicles?

[Brian_and_Jesse]

Are any of you worried about  autonomous vehicles, as in Level 5 autonomous vehicles - AKA vehicles that can drive themselves and literally navigate any terrain?

Big rig drivers, taxi drivers, and all other professionals drivers *are* worried.

Taxi drivers in major cities have two years of job security left.  Those in smaller towns, or towns with challenging terrain have an estimated 5-7 years of job security left.

Here’s what I know about self-driving vehicles:

Amost *all* vehicle manufacturers are now heavily invested in them to the tune of hundreds of millions to several billion dollars.

They *are* the future and there’s no turning back.

The first (Level 3) self-driving vehicle has already made the trip from New York to Los Angeles (all highway driving) safely, and without incident.

Children eight years old and under, as of this writing, will never have a Driver’s License, nor will they own a car.

Within a decade, all five levels of self-driving vehicles will use electricity exclusively for fuel, although in a decade, all vehicles on the road will be completely autonomous (Level 5).

They will emit no toxic gases, and most governments intend to introduce legislation that will force gas-powered vehicles off the roads.

Within a decade, gas stations will cease to exist.

Autonomous vehicles have no steering wheels or gas/brake pedals etc.  They’re essentially computers on wheels.

Since there will be far fewer vehicles on the roads, cities will be *much* quieter and safer, and traffic congestion won’t exist.

All private (as in non government-owned) insurance companies will cease to exist, as traffic accidents will plummet from 1 in 10,000 kilometres driven, to 1 in 10 million kilometres driven.

Insurance premiums will only be pennies per month.

An estimated 20% of the work force will need to switch careers before 2025.  This includes professional drivers, vehicle mechanics, gas refinery workers,
gas station owners and employees, insurance industry employees, and the list goes on.

https://emerj.com/ai-adoption-timelines/self-driving-car-timeline-themselves-top-11-automakers/

Before we shell out significant funds for our (last) brand new, customized, GMC extended high top van next fall, I’m wondering if we Nomads will be legislated off the roads by 2025 or even 2030. It’s a scary thought!

Opinions?

Love and All Good Things,

Jesse.

 

[AMGS3]

Honestly, I hadn't really even given autonomous vehicles much thought before reading your post. I understand that you're concerned. Please don't take my opinion as an insult. I do not mean it disparagingly towards you at all.

Human economies have been changing since the dawn of time. This is yet another change.

There was a time when we got all our energy from coal, wood, and whale fat. Clearly some of those have been phased out, replaced by better things, and some have not. That our energy systems are continuing to change does not worry me. It would seem to be the natural evolution of the economy.

I am 40 and grew up in a house with no TV, running water, indoor plumbing, or electricity. It takes a lot to phase me. I am not one of those people who panics when the power goes off. Not even when it's out for days and days. I prioritize and make do.

There are lots of things that concern me more than the coming of driverless cars. My health, my children's health, how we treat each other as humans (from my neighbors to all the other people we share this planet with), to the individual political causes I support (please note I mean that in a generic way, I'm not trying to get political or discuss any particular political positions).

I think that a lot of the things you listed as facts you know about the future are less than certain. A lot of the reason we as Americans rely so heavily on automotive transport compared to the citizens and systems in some other countries is because of the sheer size of the country. How many 15-20yr old vehicles are on the road now? I don't think that replacing them all with driverless transport in the next five to ten years is a reasonable thing to expect. Sure, I'm expecting to see driverless vehicles, but not ALL vehicles as driverless vehicles.

Anyways, that's my opinion. And you know what they say about opinions. [emoji1787]

~angie


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[Dingfelder]

Sounds like baloney to me for the most part.

I've been around long enough to see numerous things promised about how certain technologies will change all our lives forever. It rarely happens.

For one thing, costs are involved, from retooling plants to whether the ordinary consumer can afford to buy the latest and greatest. Which, for some years, they can't, as new tech is both expensive and in limited circulation, as well as unproven, leading to hesitation in immediate adoption as cooler heads (and cheaper pockets) prevail so manufacturers can work the kinks out.

Americans have a massive investment in their cars, and simply can't afford to give them up anytime soon. That goes for both business and private citizens. Gas stations disappearing? Another huge investment deeply embedded in the economy.

A parallel we can easily see is medicine. The latest assault against the limits of what we can do is the idea of medicine that is no longer general,but customized to an individual person's DNA. It will be obviously far superior ... and few will be able to afford it for likely quite some time. Smacking society's limitations out of the way takes money.

And who is going to pay it? Especially en masse, in a declining and ever more divided economy?

Commercial truck driving is likely due to come to a long-overdue end, but business can at least conceivably support being forced to adapt in reasonably short order. Jill and Joe Sixpack cannot possibly get a new car just because somebody says so. Many people can barely afford a car as it is, and get unfavorable car notes because of it.

You're talking about moving a whole society the way an over-excited futurologist tells us that beef is out and we'll all be eating mostly insects within ten years. It may indeed be inevitable, but inevitable can take a long time even when the technology and manufacturing are ready to pump out product.

 

[RoamerRV428]

Nope not worried one bit.
I see more articles about crashes and bad things about auto cars right now then all the good they might do.

again, nope, won't happen any time soon, not in 10 years at all. An 8 yr old kid now WILL have a driver license in 6-8 yrs. I don't see the country going 'total automated' in vehicles at all for a very very long time, if even ever.

 

[highdesertranger]

I think the time line you posted is waaaaaay optimistic. maybe in 50 years not 10. 8 year old kids will still have a driver licenses and long haul trucks will still burn diesel for a long while. electric just doesn't have the range and it takes to long to recharge. the first time an autonomous vehicle is the cause of a major efe up(and it will happen) it will set them back years. there will always be holdouts that won't go there, think Amish they are still in the horse and buggy. highdesertranger

 

[RoamerRV428]

True HDR....the Jetsons is not coming for us anytime soon in this world we live on
remember the flying car craze and that we all would be flying around driving like NOW and nope, all these projections just are that...projections and won't be going down any time soon.....world change in another 50-60 yrs, sure but not what everyone is TOLD will change.

 

[cyndi]

They are the way of the future, I don't doubt it. 10 years? Big oil isn't going to give in that easily and the changes necessary to support driverless vehicles won't happen that fast

 

[RoamerRV428]

yes Cyndi.....humans are very very slow to change actually.
look way way back, how fast was any real change happening and point blank, humans are nasty critters and will stop, change, support and not support all forward momentum all cause of the almighty dollar and opinions on 'what' is good for them, not ever about mass populations.
Big change, never! It is always super slow to 'herd humans' toward what the higher human power wants and it can't and won't ever be fast. 'THEY' don't want a human revolt of huge scale ever to happen. Slow and deadly change comes when the higher people say it will, won't be sooner than later. ALL done in a very planned and careful way.

am I a big negative on humans and change and life?...darn right I am the big picture thru history never lies.

 

[Queen]

I’m looking forward to them on the whole. The upcoming generation doesn’t even seem to want a drivers license anymore (I know several families with 16-20 year olds who refuse to drive), the ones that do get them cannot stop looking at their phones long enough to pay attention. I’m tired of paying sky-high insurance rates because other people suck at driving... bring on the autonomous vehicles!!

 

[RoamerRV428]

and bring on less responsibility a human has to live their life is what I see.
happening now, no responsibility...just sue the 'maker of your life' and see what goes down when it all fails.
more freedoms taken away have devastating impacts on true life and responsibility and those things that move us forward, bring us back many years in truth about how to handle this big world. Run away from real true actions on how humans are killing the planet. (THIS IS just me cause this is how I feel LOL and my opinion is just that, an opinion that I see thru my eyes and one everyone will never agree with....)

from the post above it is all about money again
lower ins. prices and what other prices increase for others when only 1 type of car is on the market. Can all afford it? Can you afford the ins. prices to drive it while it all fails and we pay? All willing to let something else rule your life while on the road?

yea taking away life responsibility is gonna fix everything. Nope.

 

[C-Cat]

I see this happening mostly in big cities. There will be a movement to not only driverless cars, but many people in cities won't even own one, they'll pay for it per use like taxi or Uber and this is where the elimination of the driver will have the most impact on cost. The timeline may be a bit ambitious, but many disruptive technologies have now accelerated adoption. However I also think that there are still major problems that will need to be solved - autonomous vehicles still have major issues with bad weather events that humans can somewhat deal with (sometimes with disastrous consequences though ), so I actually expect this to be rolled out in the southwestern states first - probably the reason the industry is using Phoenix as a major test-bed...

 

[WanderingCanuck]

As much as I enjoy driving, I don't enjoy most others around me when they're driving. Maybe they would say the same about me, maybe not.

I'm looking forward to taking the "human variable" out of the equation. Intoxication, distraction, emotional reaction, plain stupidity and ignorance - you name it. Software doesn't suffer from these inherent problems. That isn't to say it will be perfect though. Far from it. People will die, people will sue. But overall I think less people will die and more people will enjoy travelling. I think it also paves the way for better vehicle sharing, though there are huge human problems with that one too. Just imagine getting into your car, reclining the seat, grabbing a beer from the refrigerated centre console and saying to your car: "take me to Denver" (or wherever else you may like to go).

I agree with others' sentiments that it won't happen as quickly as was suggested. Governments aren't going to force people to upgrade until long after the technology has overtaken the manually piloted vehicle. Some will likely remain that way, like emergency responders. Those may change some day, but I think it will take much longer.

 

[bullfrog]

If technology gets that advanced what makes you think you would need to go anywhere? They deliver pizzas with them now with internet orders in some cities. Robot surgery right at home could be soon. Next you will only be "alive" when on the intermet of course some are now!

 

[johnny b]

Changes to transportation and its supporting infrastructure will come eventually, but it will be a gradual evolution based upon economics.

10-20 years is quite the leap of faith.

Also the 'experts' are already warning of the dangers of Artificial Intelligence: Stephen Hawking, Bill Gates, Elon Musk.

Time to re-watch Will Smith in "I, Robot". At least the autonomous Audi he drove had a 'manual' mode.  

"I'm sorry VIKI, I didn't mean it like that, really...AAAAARRRRRGGGGGHHHHHH.  

 

[SLB_SA]

@Brian&Jesse
I spent October in Taipei (& briefly in Tainan). Many people there do not drive or own cars. One can step out in the street (any street) and raise a hand (or wave) to get a taxi very quickly. Scooters (similar to the Vespa) significantly outnumber cars for those who drive. Taipei is a small city; the metro area only has about 7 million people. Taipei also has a light rail & subway system, a good bus system, high speed rail to other cities, etc. Many, many people work as taxi drivers; it is hard to imagine driver-less cars taking over because of the social impact, technology issues, etc. However I can imagine the widespread use of autonomous cars in Taiwan long before the United States.

 

[SLB_SA]

Time to re-watch Will Smith in "I, Robot". At least the autonomous Audi he drove had a 'manual' mode.  

"I'm sorry VIKI, I didn't mean it like that, really...AAAAARRRRRGGGGGHHHHHH.  

Don't you mean Bruce Willis in The Fifth Element?  

 

[tx2sturgis]

It's gonna take a LONG LONG time for even 50% of the predictions in the OP to happen.

10 years? forget it.

Some electrification and autonomy is happening (we all know that) but cross-country trucking wont be part of that mix anytime soon.

It takes a LOT of vehicle power and driver experience to move 80,000 pounds up steep mountain grades and against high winds, and keep 45,000 pounds of fish or beef or ice-cream frozen in the summer. Or to control one on ice and snow in high winds and rolling under control down steep mountain grades. A tablet or pc and a few sensors (that fail often) can't do that.

Bet on full electrification and full autonomy in cross-country and regional transportation sectors in the next 10-20 years, only if you are willing to lose money.

When we have completely rebuilt the infrastructure AND fully implemented artificial intelligence, then MAYBE.

 

[AMGS3]

I think that smaller countries with robust passenger and freight rail systems will move towards all electric driverless cars before we do.

~angie

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[Riverman]

I can't afford a self-driving car or truck...

Will they give me more SS so I can go buy one?

Will they come take my motor out of my car or truck?

No worries...

 

[ByeBye]

No fuel stations in 10 yrs?? Lol, won't happen. Regardless, I'm not worrying about any of it, or anything else.