Sales of new rv's decline

[Bobflhtc]

Just read an article about the recent decline in RV sales which historically is a predictor of a recession. I remember in 2008 you could pick up an RV pretty cheap. Might be a good time to wait to see what happens

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4278743-plummeting-rv-shipments-amplify-recession-fears

 

[MrNoodly]

They must be running out of Boomers with money.

 

[Qxxx]

So I wondered how fast boomers are dying off, and this curve shows approx 900,000 per year, based on estimated 20M decline over 22 years from 2014 to 2036. Oldest boomers currently about 73 yo. Maybe a lot of used RVs coming on the market. It is good to see almost 80M Millennials paying into the SS system. Hoo-rah.

https://jacobsmedia.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/pew-population-by-generation.gif

 

[wayne49]

Boomers did not create Social Security.

 

[Blanch]

I’ve been seeing signs of an economic downturn. Way fewer people camped in the Sierras this summer, available parking spots in Yosemite. I saw the same thing in 2007.


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[GraceinMotion]

Maybe it's because people are finally getting wise to the fact that most RV manufacturers are pumping out crap and sales techniques are dodgy.

 

[Elbear1]

I’ve been seeing signs of an economic downturn. Way fewer people camped in the Sierras this summer, available parking spots in Yosemite. I saw the same thing in 2007.


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Theyre all in colorado. Good boondocking spots looked like a campingworld sales lot.

What i can tell you is all across country inflation is bordering on going out of control. The extreme rains and the crop yields sitting and rotting are worrying. In Utah I keep seeing signs in walmarts canned veg/fruit isles saying theyre experiencing a shortage.

 

[Gr8ful]

I posted about this a couple months ago, looks like it continues. The RV industry seems like it's always been boom or bust. I look for a real downturn in the economy 2019 or 2030, hope I'm wrong.

 

[Blanch]

It used to be, back when I had money, that three stocks let you know how the economy was doing.
Harley-Davidson
Caterpillar
Winnebago

Caterpillar being up meant construction was doing well and the other two meant that middle class families had money to spend.

I do not know what you would look at now to make a quick judgment.



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[highdesertranger]

if Harley is down it's for the same reason I said about the RV industry. the market is saturated has been for awhile. to make it real easy to understand, basically everyone who wants a Harley has a Harley. highdesertranger

 

[maki2]

The economy is cyclical, it goes up and it goes down. It will continue to do so as long as there are people who buy and sell goods.

 

[jacqueg]

Maybe it's because people are finally getting wise to the fact that most RV manufacturers are pumping out crap and sales techniques are dodgy.

The would be such a wonderful sign of a mass outbreak of sanity...

 

[jeanmarie]

Yet, Winnebago's stock price is soaring.

 

[jeanmarie]

It used to be, back when I had money, that three stocks let you know how the economy was doing.
Harley-Davidson
Caterpillar
Winnebago

Caterpillar being up meant construction was doing well and the other two meant that middle class families had money to spend.

I do not know what you would look at now to make a quick judgment.



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Hard to tell, now, as economies get more global. That's why I stick with stocks with a good dividend, like Ford or AT&T, or even EPD or IVZ or DOC, whichever looks like the best buy when I get money together.  Prices go up, prices go down. But I am still getting my 6% or more return. I used to do better daytrading. But it was almost a fulltime job. I did not retire so I could spend all my time pouring over spreadsheets and financial statements or analyzing business news.

 

[ckelly78z]

Last year, I commented that most of the campers/trucks in the State Parks that we were going to were absolutely brand new, and appeared to be folks that were trying it for the first time. I can't believe the money invested in a new diesel F350, pulling a new 38' 5th wheel.

https://www.ford-trucks.com/forums/1496709-srw-f350-swb-with-5th-wheel.html

On the same camp sight, I would see Momma's new SUV pulling a new ski boat.

https://www.thecarconnection.com/ne...7-cadillac-escalade-6-things-you-need-to-know

I often commented that those people had $250,000 worth of toys in the next camp site, while my whole rig (2004 diesel Limited Excursion pulling a 2011 32' travel trailer) is in the $20,000 range, and luxurious.

 

[cherterr]

I often commented that those people had $250,000 worth of toys in the next camp site, while my whole rig (2004 diesel Limited Excursion pulling a 2011 32' travel trailer) is in the $20,000 range, and luxurious.

I know.. it's RIDICULOUS what a new truck costs these day... well.. actually, about ten years ago, too!!  (Last time I looked til a few months back)  All I can think of is.. geeze.. My whole small home, land and vehicles cost less than that!

I also always think of what would happen if the lost their job.  I doubt very many are actually PAID for.  Ewww.. I hate Debt!!!!

 

[lenny flank]

It is expected. Grand Solar Minimum. Cold , earthquakes and volcanoes blowing up, causing food shortages. A natural cycle. Google it.

Um, it doesn't mean what you seem to think it means ......

 

[tx2sturgis]

I do not know what you would look at now to make a quick judgment.

Truck tonnage. When people have money to buy stuff, trucks have to haul that stuff.

Of course I was in the transportation industry for about 40 years...

https://www.trucking.org/article/ATA-Truck-Tonnage-Index-Fell-6.1-Percent-in-May

https://www.transtats.bts.gov/osea/seasonaladjustment/?PageVar=TRUCK

There are related 'bell wethers' such as fleets purchasing new trucks, freight trailer sales, etc. And, the 'amazon effect' also skews the tonnage numbers a bit.

But, transportation is not only the lifeblood of the US economy, it is also like the canary in the mines: If something negative is happening, and people are saving rather than spending, overall freight tonnage will take a noticeable downturn.

 

[66788]

RVs are falling out of favor since high top Transits and Sprinters take their place. Not to mention the regular cargo vans that get converted. 15/20 MpG is better than 7/8.

One would hope that mileage would be a factor, but every time I ask an RV owner his mileage, I get "I don't know, I just fill it up." as a reply.

I guess most have more money than brains.

 

[B and C]

I know what my gas mileage is. It is abysmal but I am carrying a complete house with me. There are trade offs with anything. If you can't afford the gas you probably can't afford the RV either or just drive a lot less.