How soon will electric or hybrid vans/RVs be common?

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big D

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A Tesla NCA battery is built to last 300k to 500k miles. The LFP battery (only on the M3 RWD) should get double that.

Battery replacement is 15k to 20k.

It cost 3k to replace our Prius battery at 495k miles (not a typo).
The cost of replacement battery packs is not normally a consideration. They last more than a decade and not only you, but 100% of battery experts cannot predict the cost of any battery pack a decade from now.
Yep, and coal-powered EVs WILL be paying their fair share of road taxes...some day...or at least, we can hope.

This new full scale government build-out of the EV charging network is mostly courtesy of VW. As part of the dieselgate fiasco, one of the settlement terms is that Volkswagen is paying billions for the new EV charging network.

Ironic, isnt it, that selling all those 'dirty' diesel cars is helping to provide an infrastructure (called Electrify America) for dirty coal-burning EVs.

Remember, the EV is not really zero emission.

We didn't actually remove the pollution, we just moved it.
There will be zero coal fired EVs by 2050 as coal is dead soon. There will also be 100's of thousands of battery chargers by the time we need them, mostly solar powered.
 

GomerPile

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There will be zero coal fired EVs by 2050 as coal is dead soon. There will also be 100's of thousands of battery chargers by the time we need them, mostly solar powered.
At present, PV installations are cheaper than new coal plants, it's only a matter of time. Power companies will have to figure out the grid storage thing to completely transition over. I suspect in the coming decades having battery storage and rooftop solar will become the norm for new homes. Small battery storage banks widely distributed can be linked together to make virtual grid storage (Tesla has a pilot in CA for this).
 

tx2sturgis

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There will be zero coal fired EVs by 2050 as coal is dead soon. There will also be 100's of thousands of battery chargers by the time we need them, mostly solar powered.

Your crystal ball needs a tune-up, me thinks.

Coal is expected to keep powering America way past 2050. Yes, it is expected to decline somewhat, but we still have a LOT of it and after all, it's American Made Energy, unlike some of our other sources of energy.




India, Russia, and China are large consumers of coal for electricity generation. So even if the USA went to ZERO electricity produced from coal, there will still be large populations burning coal and other hydrocarbons to juice up the EV in the driveway.
 
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Ric G

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I just bought a 2022 RAV4 Hybrid and gonna turn it into a mini-camper. Have fashioned a bed in the back, so if the weather is either really cold or hot, I'll be able to run the climate control overnight. I plan to "follow 70", so I'll probably sleep in a tent most of the time, but it's nice to have the backup of AC or heat in the car, if needed. I plan to travel a lot, staying mostly in national forests, BLM, etc. and visit family and friends.

The vehicle 40 mpg, so it's pretty efficient. Look forward to meeting other nomads soon.
 

Editha

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Just to add a note, Amsterdam is banning all petrol/diesel-based vehicles from the city center beginning in 2030 and you must have an electric vehicle to obtain a parking permit as a resident. "From 2022, buses and coaches will only be allowed in the city center if they have electric or hydrogen-powered engines, and by 2030, all transportation in the city must be emissions free." Most taxis and commercial vehicles have either transitioned or are transitioning now.

Paris, Madrid, Athens and Mexico City pledged in 2016 to ban diesel vehicles by 2025. London this year started imposing steep charges on vehicles in its city center that don’t meet strict emissions standards, and several cities in Germany have already imposed restrictions on diesel vehicles.

These vehicles are more expensive, of course, but at least in The Netherlands, the government is offering many tax breaks and incentives to switch to electric as soon as possible.
 
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India, Russia, and China are large consumers of coal for electricity generation. So even if the USA went to ZERO electricity produced from coal, there will still be large populations burning coal and other hydrocarbons to juice up the EV in the driveway.
China is the largest producer of renewable power. So by the time old man USA goes to ZERO coal so will the rest of the world.

2050 LOL
 

Spaceman Spiff

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China currently has 43 new coal fired power plants under construction; US is not building any.
Life expectancy of a coal plant is ~40 years.

Coal accounts for 58% of China's power; India = 70%; US = 22%
Solar accounts for 3.5% of China's power; India = 7%; US = 3.1%.

China and India will be using coal long after the US retires theirs.
 
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China currently has 43 new coal fired power plants under construction; US is not building any.
Life expectancy of a coal plant is ~40 years.

Coal accounts for 58% of China's power; India = 70%; US = 22%
Solar accounts for 3.5% of China's power; India = 7%; US = 3.1%.

China and India will be using coal long after the US retires theirs.
Nothing made in China lasts 40 years.
 

gkb2016

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There is no good reason for humanity to continue using fossil fuels (except nuclear, if you consider that a fossil fuel) in the long term. We can produce all the power we need (and much more) using solar and nuclear. In the long term this will be much better for the planet and everyone's wallets. All the talking points about EVs polluting more than gas, that the electric grid can't handle it etc. are plain and simple false information being spread by those with an irrational hate against EVs. Power plants produce energy more efficiently than burning gasoline, and not all the power for EVs comes from burning fossil fuels. Soem comes from solar, nuclear, hydroelectric, wind etc. Soon range anxiety will be a thing of the past. Battery tech and fast charging will improve and the few problems the best EVs currently have will disappear.

Contrary to what some people seem to believe exhaust gases don't just disappear ... they disperse in the atmosphere. Unless we capture these gases somehow they don't go just away... which is what causes global warming. The earth already had "captured" these gases before we took the coal/oil/natural gas etc. out of the ground and started releasing it by burning it.
 
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maki2

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Via my belonging to the Quartzsite library system yesterday I was able to read a European magazine
"Camper Van "and they already have an electric VW camper Van as well as a hybrid camper Van . More such camper vans and more companies are near the final stages of development production. Not surprising that they are winning the development race as the fuel cost are very high there. That type of vehicle will become common in Europe years before they are common in the USA.
 

Living 2.0

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VW have confirmed they will be building an all-electric camper van. There are few details that I have seen, but it probably won't be cheep. VW has said it will be based on their long-wheelbased 2024 ID.Buzz all-electric van (photo below).

The camper version should be available in a year or two after that. I'm anticipating a high demand for this.

Below is not the anticipated campervan variant, but it's still a pretty cool looking VW ID.Buzz.

id-buzz.jpg
 

dhuff

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There is no good reason for humanity to continue using fossil fuels (except nuclear, if you consider that a fossil fuel) in the long term. <snip>
Agree, in general. I've always floated the following ideas as how I think this can shake out:

  • Starting now -> future: Continue to build out solar, wind, and hydro power where it's viable.
  • Near term: Replace coal plants with natural gas, which have half the carbon output. Start building modern* nuclear fission plants.
  • Medium term: At a certain point, retire the natural gas plants as enough nuclear comes on-line. Sooner the better here, as the goal is carbon reduction.
  • Long term: Nuclear fusion plants (probably at least 20-30 years away from any practical, commercial viability).
Renewables like solar, wind, and hydro power are great. But the first two need a backup for when generation isn't optimal (dark/cloudy/windless days). Thus the natural gas -> fission -> fusion suggestions. Hydro is also great, but only works in specific locations.

* Yes, there is such a thing. Modern fission plants can be built safely. Problems like Chernobyl or Fukushima occur because of ancient, shoddy design (Chernobyl) or really stupid geographic placement (Fukushima). The waste problem can be solved if we get politics and NIMBY stuff out of the equation. There are also fast breeder reactors that can recycle fuel. Getting carbon out of the atmosphere is a much more pressing issue.
 

Spaceman Spiff

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A better question is when will EV-RVs be at a price point we can afford?

I can afford about $20,000 without too much pain, $30,000 by severely reducing my spending. $40,000+ is out of reach (I will not go into heavy debt for a vehicle).
 

LargeMarge

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There is no good reason for humanity...
.
Agreed!
.
Our species are locusts, consuming everything in our path.
Name any problem... the solution is less humans:
* factory fishing -- less humans.
* Colorado River -- less humans.
* HIV, polio, monkeypox -- less humans.
* air pollution, weather dithering, The Ozone Layer© -- less humans.
.
One example:
* open-pit mines employing children to harvest elements required to manufacture batteries.
Another example:
* coal mines, and 24/7/360° mile-long railroad trains of coal transported to electric power plants.
Another example:
* bio-mass electric power plants, requiring a constant supply of trees from forests, creating a 'stump-farm', requiring re-planting of GMO quick-grow trees... eliminating any opportunity for fallen trees to enrich the forest soil, inevitably causing a desert.
.
Each decision has consequences.
In a closed system -- such as this particular planet -- every consequence inevitably creates a myriad of interlocking downstream non-predictable consequences.
.
I welcome your rebuttal.
 

wayne49

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Scotland is cutting down 14 million trees to clear an area for 21 green wind farm projects to generate power with smaller Carbon footprint.

Trees process CO2 and hold moisture. Sequestering Carbon.

Wind farms kill birds, require roads, etc.

 

Oldwolf

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.
Agreed!
.
Our species are locusts, consuming everything in our path.
Name any problem... the solution is less humans:
* factory fishing -- less humans.
* Colorado River -- less humans.
* HIV, polio, monkeypox -- less humans.
* air pollution, weather dithering, The Ozone Layer© -- less humans.
.
One example:
* open-pit mines employing children to harvest elements required to manufacture batteries.
Another example:
* coal mines, and 24/7/360° mile-long railroad trains of coal transported to electric power plants.
Another example:
* bio-mass electric power plants, requiring a constant supply of trees from forests, creating a 'stump-farm', requiring re-planting of GMO quick-grow trees... eliminating any opportunity for fallen trees to enrich the forest soil, inevitably causing a desert.
.
Each decision has consequences.
In a closed system -- such as this particular planet -- every consequence inevitably creates a myriad of interlocking downstream non-predictable consequences.
.
I welcome your rebuttal.

LOL, you might be taking the comment out of context.
 

gkb2016

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A better question is when will EV-RVs be at a price point we can afford?

I can afford about $20,000 without too much pain, $30,000 by severely reducing my spending. $40,000+ is out of reach (I will not go into heavy debt for a vehicle).
I hope soon we will have affordable EV RVs and vans ... there are a few EV vans out already, mostly with shorter range, but the VW one coming out does have a good range. IMO people doing full time van / RV life probably have a lower carbon footprint compared to someone living in an apartment or house simply because of the much lower electricity usage from not having AC, especially if using solar. I suppose that doesn't apply to everyone though if they are driving a ton more. Personally, I'm driving less than before because I stick in one small area most of the time.
 
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